Methodology for the presentation of the “War Cycle”

What do we want to show?

First, the distribution of the triggering of wars is not completely random. If we have successive periods of about 8 and a half years, corresponding to the “War Cycle”, we typically want to show that 70-80% of wars are triggered in a “period of amplification” of 4 years and that the 30 to 20% are in the reverse period, ie a “mitigation period” of just over 4 years.

We do not pretend to prove that all wars follow this phenomenon but simply that it is a phenomenon that has influence, statistically demonstrable.

How to read Graph?

The basic frame

 What events are taken into account?

Are indicated on the Graph of each context

War events

  • The dates of the outbreak of wars,
  • Some tensions when the war did not take place but tensions were clearly visible,
  • The dates of major escalation (or war in war), if they appear significant

Peace Events

  • The dates of cessation of fighting
  • The dates of peace treaty.

 

Some examples and their visual interpretation

Example 1

 

Example 2

Example 3

Deviation table by  Context

The gap between the outbreak of war and the peak of war amplification is measured  in % in a deviation table

The significance of these deviations shown in the table is illustrated in the following graph.

Deviation pourcentagebetween the outbreak of War and the amplification Peak

  • 0% means there is no gap and war started at the peak of amplification,
  • 100% means that the war unleashed at the most unlikely moment according to the “War Cycle”, that is to say in the peak of mitigation,
  • If wars were triggered completely randomly, this would mean that they were uniformly distributed with random values, hence between 0 and 100,
  • If all deviations were less than 50%, it would mean that wars are all triggered in 50% of the time (instead of spreading over 100% of the time).
  • If the deviation is a negative value, it means that the event occurred before the amplification peak