The Return Theory

 

The Return Theory says that there are privileged mathematically determinable periods during which an event [1] that have marked the collective unconscious [2] can be relived. These periods are a multiple of 3085 [3] days (8 years and a little less than 6 months) with a high probability of + or – 6 months and an average probability of + or – 2 years

The recurrences can be multiple, that is to say to revive simultaneously an event of 8 years and 50 years for example.

The most common relive is about 25 years (3 times 3085 days) or a multiple of 25 years

When these events reappear in the unconscious, a similar event may occur, or (and) cause an event that calls into question the order arising directly or indirectly from these past events.

It is as if the reactions are momentarily exacerbated during these periods.

The Return may appear without tension [4] beforehand, the resulting crisis is then considered unpredictable, except by knowing the periods determined by the probability of the Return Theory

[1] Few events can be relived, less than one every ten years in each country. It is not known today whether the other events are also revived but are not visible or if only the very important events cause this effect back

[2] The events that marked the collective unconscious are exceptional events that were experienced by the largest number of people. In other words, these are the greatest known historical events. An event that will not be experienced and felt by a large number of people is not considered to be able to mark the collective unconscious. For example, a secret agreement known publicly several years after the agreement and known only to a few elites is not considered an event having marked the collective unconscious.

[3] 3085 days was determined in 2001 with the implementation of the “War cycle,” ie from the trigger dates of the major wars of the 20th century. This appeared the only way to have enough events of the same type to have a meaningful measure. The value of 3085 days is considered approximate (of the order of a few% max). It was not considered useful to recalibrate it before having an explanation of the phenomenon at the origin of the War Cycle. The day when we identify a periodic phenomenon at the origin of this observed phenomenon, it will be easier to have an exact value. Until then, all the proposed values ​​will be approximate and simply more or less accurate.

[4] The return is not necessarily a conflict or war. The theory is general even if the applications developed in priority are those related to wars.

Example of return of 8 years and a few months:

These returns have generally a low amplitude (compared to returns of 25 years)

Return of the Kosovo War in 2007

In 2007, just over 8 years after the Kosovo war that led to Kosovo being placed under guardianship, negotiations were resumed on this subject. As in 1999, they did not succeed. As in 1999, there are two camps: Russians and Serbs on the one hand, who refuse other than autonomy, USA and Europe on the other who claim that no coexistence is possible and are preparing to recognize The independence of Kosovo.

Kosovo declared its independence in 2007.

This is a very typical example in accordance with the Return Theory: the probability of relive such an event is very strong at a multiple of 8 years and 5 months. When this happens, the event may be relived in a similar way or on the contrary be challenged. In this case, the event is relived both similar (the actors are the same and their behavior is the same), and contrary to the questioning of the autonomy formally accepted the UN in 1999.

But this return did not provoke a war.

Return of the First World War in 1923

In 1923, France invaded the Ruhr. This event is a return of 8 years and a few months of the beginning of the First World War.

Example of return of 17 years (2 times 3085 days):

The Georgian War takes place on August 8, 2008, about 17 years after Georgia’s declared independence, while South Ossetia expresses its desire for independence, and the war launched by Georgia, and before the end Of the USSR.

Examples of return of 25 years or multiples of 25 years:

The periodicity of 25 years is the most frequent and easiest to manipulate to understand the Return Theory.

The Second World War takes place 25 years after the first world war, it is a return of 25. It’s a similar event

Second Israeli war in Lebanon

The second Israeli war in Lebanon took place in July 2006, a little over 24 years after Israel’s first in Lebanon which took place in June 1982. It is a return of 25 years – 1 year To uncertainty of + or – 2 years). It’s a similar event.

Second Intifada or New Palestinian War

The Lebanese war between Lebanese and Palestinians begins on April 13, 1975. Adding 3 times 3085 days later is 14 August 2000. And on 28 September 2000, a month and a half later the Intifada 2 begins. Turns into a war between the Palestinians and the Israelis. The intifada can be seen as a return of the Lebanon war. It’s a similar event.

End of the aftermath of the Second World War

In 1989, 50 years after the Second World War, the aftermath of the Second World War disappeared and Germany reunited. It was a return of 2 * 25 years. It is an event that calls into question the consequences of the original event.

Waterloo, return of the French Revolution of 1789

In 1789 the French Revolution took place, in 1814 Waterloo put an end to the French Revolution and provoked the return of the French monarchy. It is an event that challenges the revolution and restores monarchical power.

Disintegration of the USSR –

December 1991, the USSR disintegrates a little less than 3 times 25 years after the Russian Revolution of 1917. It is an event that challenges the Soviet revolution and ends the communist era of the Russian Revolution. 1917

Return of the fall of the Berlin Wall and the disintegration of the USSR –

The return of the fall of the Berlin Wall (November 1989) and the disintegration of the USSR began 25 years later in 2014: Ukraine, multiple intimidations with other countries, international reaffirmation of Russia including in wars (In reaction to the initial disintegration of the USSR). The return, begun in 2014, is expected to continue for several years, with the exception of awareness and compensation from Russian leaders (which is not yet the case at the end of 2015). This is the most interesting Return since 2014. It is contrary to the original event (negative logic in relation to the initial event). It does not mean that the USSR will recreate itself but that it is a trend that pushes Russia to assert itself. Nor does it mean that Russia will once again become a “USSR”. It asserts itself but can also end in impasse without institutionalizing a new power regained. It is the return “structuring for the Europeans,” that they must understand without panic.

Return of Alexander Lukashenko to power by election

The institutional crisis in Belarus is an interesting example of return. President Lukashenko was elected in 1994. 26 years later, a strong protest challenged this power. Without massive fraud, he would not have been elected. This return is also accompanied by the return of a symbol: the flag that preceded Lukashenko’s seizure of power.

This return calls for another point: the temporal gap between the seizure of power in 1994 and the fall of the Berlin Wall is about the same (to the nearest year) as between the return of the fall of the BERLIN Wall in 2014 and the Lukashenko protest in 2020. As if there was a parallelism of history that, in both cases, is contrary to the initial events. This is just an idea to be developed. There is already an example of an interesting parallelism of history but not yet published on this site.

Examples of return in study

Yellow vests in France

It was difficult and time-consuming to consider the yellow vest movement as a 50 year return of May 1968. There are both analogies and at the same time profound differences. Compared to May 1968, the yellow jackets movement is not the same scale and seems rather marginal. It was necessary to make a relative analysis

This relative analysis made it possible to conclude that the Yellow Vests movement is indeed a Return of the Social Movement of May 1968 and that it is part of a “Return Cycle specific to France” for which there is no publication yet.

The Return is spectacular because if we take the dates of the release of the yellow jackets (November 17, 2018) and the beginning of May 1968 (May 3, 1968) it takes place less than 2 months before the theoretical return, which indicates a strong relationship although confused (the 2 movements were without clearly affirmed leadership and without structuring of the movement, the same contestation all around, a similar violence).

Their unfolding is not the same and if May 1968 was able to end quickly and neatly the movement of the yellow jackets appears endless. It must be considered that it is the 2nd return of 25 years, that is to say 50 years. It is equivalent to the 6th return compared to the basic return of the “Theory of Return”. It is often easier to think first in multiples of 25 years: these are the most probable returns.

The return of the Arab spring

The first return of the Arab spring of 2011 in 2019 (about 8 years and a half) is visible with Algeria, mainly, and also Sudan. There is a “Cycle of Arab Return” if we take the war in Iraq, its first return in 2011 and the current Return. This “Arab Return Cycle” deserves a separate study. It mixes political contestation and wars (outbreak of the Libyan and Syrian wars). It seems recent. Further studies in the Arab world could confirm whether it is a new cycle or the resurgence of a deeper phenomenon in the Arab world.

“Arab Return Cycle” and Return of the Ottoman Empire

This case of the “Arab Return Cycle” is complex and also disturbing in relation to Return Theory. Its origin could be the end of the Ottoman Empire. The period 2011-2017 gives the impression of a return from the end of the Ottoman Empire with first of all a questioning of the regimes and borders resulting from the end of the Ottoman Empire, as well as a distant resurgence of the Ottoman Empire (the notion of Caliphate of the Islamic State as well as a sudden reaffirmation of Turkey in all directions, and a questioning of the borders resulting from the post-Ottoman Empire). The dates of “Return” do not seem to correspond with the Theory, but the global earthquake of the Arab Spring in 2011 and the wars that followed seems to correspond to such a Return which manifests itself about a century after the original event. Subject to controversy and further study, the author cannot confirm these “Returns” for the moment but presents them as “hypotheses to be confirmed”, even if they should shake the current state of the “Theory of Return”. What is new in 2020 is that Turkey is asserting itself on several fronts: Libya, Syria, Azerbaijan, territorial waters, gas deposits … And this gives credibility to a hypothesis that seemed far-fetched a few years ago.

Other examples

In the books which have been published there are numerous other examples, especially of all the cases which have allowed the reflections on the returns of the past to evolve, leading to the “Return Theory”

Applications of Return Theory Other than Returns from the Past

The “Return Theory” is the mother of several applications including the “War Cycle”, “Relative Analysis”, or “Parallelism of History”. Each time it is by trying to apply the “Return Theory” that it has led to another track. It is easier to demonstrate the correctness of applications such as the “War Cycle” which can lead to statistical measurements even if they are questionable, whereas it is and will be difficult, if not impossible, to demonstrate statistically the “Return Theory”. Applications of the “Return Theory” serve to support the theory. The 3085-day measurement comes from the study of the “War Cycle”.

update of the english release on October 21, 2020