A war has multiple causes. According to conflict studies, these include:

• immediate causes (what triggers the outbreak of war),
• circumstantial causes (generally events preceding the outbreak of war),
• and structural causes (which are the most significant)

In the case of the Persian Gulf, the causes of a limited war between the countries bordering the Persian Gulf are:

• immediate cause: the decision by the United States and Israel to go to war,
• Circumstantial factors: The war launched by the United States and Israel led Iran to believe that blocking the Strait of Hormuz and destroying its neighbors’ facilities would be to its advantage. The initial war triggered a new war between Iran and the Persian Gulf states.
• Structural causes: Iran and its neighbors in the Persian Gulf rarely communicate with one another and do not belong to any common institution that would allow them to defuse tensions. They communicate only through gunfire, foreign powers, and threats—and never directly (or almost never).

What was the situation like before the war of 2026?

Six of the eight countries bordering the Persian Gulf are members of the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council. The name might suggest that this is an organization that fosters cooperation among all the countries bordering the Persian Gulf. This is not the case, and given the reality of relations among these six countries, it never will be.

The Gulf Cooperation Council has several objectives:

• partial political integration (there will never be political integration with Iran or Iraq),
• Economic integration (apart from cooperation in the Persian Gulf, it is unlikely that Iraq and Iran will be integrated into it),
• various projects, such as finding alternative shipping routes to the Strait of Hormuz

Iran accounts for roughly half of the Persian Gulf coastline and has no formalized cooperation with its neighbors.

What is the situation like after the war of 2026?

Iran has blocked shipping lanes, launched missiles and drones at various countries, and believes itself to be the master of the Strait of Hormuz. They’re living in a fantasy world, and they’re going to have to come back down to earth.

What is the purpose of the Persian Gulf Council?

It focuses on structural causes. If only the countries bordering the Persian Gulf would communicate regularly with one another, it could pave the way for a better future and help resolve crises. Exchanging threats and bringing in a powerful military ally will only add chaos to chaos.

Iran’s demands should not be taken at face value. Iran sees itself as the master of the Strait of Hormuz. Will Iran dare to propose its demand for exclusive control of the strait to its neighbors? If so, we must respond to Iran: Could you remind us of the demarcation of territorial waters in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf?

And until the response is credible in light of existing territorial agreements, we’ll have to keep politely repeating the same old refrain, while we wait for a somewhat serious response—with a touch of humor.

Which countries could help facilitate the creation of the Persian Gulf Council?

Iraq, Oman, and Qatar. They must be able to bring the others on board. Once that happens, a framework for negotiations will need to be established with permanent representatives from the eight countries in one of these three countries.

A few drafts have been written (there have been five others besides this one). They are not finalized, which is intentional: it is up to the eight countries to write and define what they wish to do. After that, they must take charge and decide whether or not to create the Persian Gulf Council. This body could be informal or formal, but it would be better if it had an official status, if only to reassure the rest of the world and the insurers.

Having an idea isn’t enough

That is the weakness of an architect and his proposals. After that, we need third countries on board to get the eight countries to go along with it. And then it will be up to those eight countries. For now, they prefer to wait for a magic solution from outside negotiators.

The architect is merely a catalyst to spark a project. There are other solutions besides this project, but it would be good if the Persian Gulf countries would talk to one another and find solutions to their problems. We can help them think things through, but we cannot decide what they do not want to do.

There is a lack of a network of diplomats to try something. According to the statistical data on this website, no Arab country has ever read a single one of these texts. So nothing has happened, and likely nothing will happen, due to a lack of intermediaries and a network. It was an idea—not a stupid one—but without the means to implement it.

Naej DRANER

May 10, 2026