Yellow vests: Relative analysis

To understand the principle of Relative Analysis, refer to the Relative Analysis page.

Relative analysis is used when there is an exceptional event for which one wants to understand the unconscious motivations.

This analysis is done by taking the date of the triggering event and tracing all occurrences back 3085 days. This is done with an Excel spreadsheet.

Priority is given to looking for past events less than 6 months relative to a past event that has marked the collective unconscious.

These dates are relative (i.e. a multiple of 3085 days) to the beginning of the movement of the yellow vests in France on November 17, 2018:

June 7, 2010, December 26, 2001

July 16, 1993: 28 months before the 1995 strikes.

February 3, 1985, August 24, 1976

March 14, 1968: a few days before the outbreak of May 1968 and 50 days before May 3, 1968, which marks the beginning of the mass effect of this movement.

October 3, 1959, April 23, 1951

November 11, 1942: 18 months before the beginning of the Liberation of France (June 6, 1944) which has already been considered as having a link with May 1968 (origin of the Theory of Return).

1st June 1934: 22 months before the outbreak of the Popular Front, which began in April 1936.

What do these past events in accordance with the Theory of Return tell us?

  • Very strong relationship with the events of May 1968, which are a strong unconscious motivation.
  • Weak relationship with some other social eruption events
  • This shows a “Cycle of Return of French social movements”: practically all of the French social eruptions are on a specific “Cycle of Return”. May 1968 and the Yellow Vests are a little out of step with the Cycle, but taking an average value we can estimate that all the major events listed are + or – 14 months away from the cycle that would take the average dates.

The “Return Cycles” are a new concept currently under study. Just as there is a “Cycle of Return from the Wars” (called War Cycle) there are other Return Cycle that are staggered in relation to each other and may be specific to a country or region.

What are the analogies between May 1968 and the Yellow Vests?

There have been many analogies made in the media on this subject between the end of 2018 and 2019. The most striking are:

  • lack of leadership and structuring
  • break with traditional political and trade union movements
  • police violence
  • challenging institutions and power

What can we learn from this?

There is in France a “Return Cycle specific to France” which is the occasion for harder social movements.

This cycle amplifies and exacerbates movements. Being aware of it can help to put these eruptions of violence or contestation into perspective.

If 1968 marked the years that followed, the “Return” of May 1968 could have been the occasion either of a similar event or of a questioning of the consequences of May 1968, for example by a return of authority.

There is no visible return of authority and the movement of the yellow vests does not seem to carry a project changing society. Rather, it appears to be the beginning of a destructuring of French society and its institutions.

Why does the yellow vest movement last so long compared to May 1968 or the strikes of 1995?

In May 1968, the government did not hesitate to dissolve the national assembly and organize national negotiations, and De Gaulle himself accepted his challenge in a referendum: whatever the causes of the conflict, the measures taken could only deflate it.

In December 1995, the conflict was deflated by keeping the component of social reforms (Social Security, …) and by accepting the demands of the SNCF in an attempt to collapse the telescoping of conflicts that had begun.

In both cases, the authorities took strong measures to put an end to the conflict.

With the yellow vests, at no time did the power get involved in a way that could have helped to finish the movement. The government has been satisfied with financially costly measures with no visible counterpart in the form of cuts in state spending or a great debate with other interlocutors than the yellow jackets.

It is not the purpose of this relative analysis to polemicize with the power in place, but the conclusion is that there has been no exit from the crisis that is a memorable or good example. The security tightening of the regime in place is a bad signal: there is a risk to be watched on individual liberties.

The French political authorities would have everything to gain by understanding the particularities of France in relation to the phenomenon of “Return”. This does not provide an immediate solution, but it could avoid crisis management errors, as was the case.

April 30, 2019
PS: It is not the responsibility of the author and the site “L’Horloge de l’Inconscient” to inform anyone on this subject. If in 1995 the power was informed and seems to have used the advice to get out of the crisis, the result was that the power of the time refused to confirm anything. When an anonymous person advises a power in place, it is almost certain that there will be no return. This information is public. Whether or not it is used is the problem of potential readers. The author will not make any other publication than the publication of this web page.

French to English translation on October 21, 2020