News in August 2023

• A major breakthrough took place in 2023. Thanks to the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), it is now possible to demonstrate over the period 1989-2022 that all amplification phases of the War Cycle have produced an increase and a peak in the number of war-related deaths in armed conflicts involving states. This is what is known as the “materialization of the War Cycle“, which has thus gone from being a validated hypothesis to a demonstrable certainty.
  To understand this breakthrough, read the attached text.
  This is proof that the principle of the “Cycle of Wars” has an indirect effect on the number of war victims.
• To understand the materialization of the War Cycle, please refer to the corresponding chapter in “The Recurrent (or Return) War Cycle” The next update will include UCDP elements.

End of news

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Several current conflicts can be illustrated by the Unconscious Clock.

The most spectacular is the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Several concepts and applications can be found here.

• The 25-year “Return” from the fall of the Berlin Wall and the disintegration of the USSR has been visible since 2014, in an “opposite” form, i.e. it’s an inverse trend to the original event.
  For example, the trend towards the disappearance of the blocs that emerged from the Second World War is being transformed, in the opposite way, into a trend towards the reconstitution of the blocs.
• another example: the trend towards the break-up of the USSR is transformed, in the opposite direction, into a trend towards the rebuilding of an equivalent power.
• It’s not a single return that’s been visible since 2014, but a set of returns that are almost an inverse parallelism of History (this is the first example of inverse parallelism. It is currently being studied. For the moment, examples of parallelism are not yet published on this site.)
  The “Recurrent War Cycle” gives rise to 2 examples in the Russia-Ukraine conflict: the war of 2014 and the war of 2022.

The application of the Recurrent War Cycle indicated before 2022 a possible war in Europe over the period 2022-2026, most likely in a former socialist country with a direct or indirect Russian component. If it’s too late to convince you of this prediction, it’s not too late to reflect and become aware of this strange phenomenon. If it can be used for forecasting, then there is a very real phenomenon, even if it is unknown or denied. To learn more about this phenomenon, please refer to the document the “Recurrent War Cycle”.

A cyclical phenomenon that has an influence on our collective behavior and in particular wars?

It is necessary to open a debate on the subject, to bring elements for or against to make mature this subject which influences us without most of us being conscious of it.

How can we summarize this cyclical phenomenon in a few lines?

A cyclic phenomenon has been identified: the cycle is about 8 and a half years or a multiple and most often 3 times, that is to say a little more than 25 years or a multiple of 25 years.

This periodic phenomenon can be expressed in different ways

• It can bring back the past but in a distorted and most often unconscious form. This phenomenon is called “Return of the past”.
• It can exacerbate tensions and favor wars or escalations. This is studied through the “The Recurrent War Cycle” which does not determine all wars but can favor war or resolution depending on whether it is in a phase of amplification or in a phase of attenuation
• It can, in exceptional cases, give the impression of a certain parallelism of history. This subject is just mentioned here but not yet explained on this site

What is the interest of such a cyclic phenomenon?

The first one is to notice that collective events, like crises or wars, which seem to be unpredictable, follow a logic which can only be understood by taking cognizance of this cyclic phenomenon. It is fascinating to see this. It is disturbing to admit it. It can give some people the impression of a formidable regression of thought which returns to a world where we imagined, in the Middle Ages, a great hidden clockwork which guided our destiny. This phenomenon has an influence but is not deterministic.

What are the stakes of these studies?

We can imagine, based on current knowledge, that most of the major wars of the 20th and 21st centuries have an additional cause that is unconscious today and that is this cyclical phenomenon. We do not yet know the real origin of this phenomenon. Presumably it is not as regular as a beautiful mathematical sinusoid.
If further studies were to confirm this, it would shed a new light on all those wars which we thought were defending a just cause but for which one of the important causes had not been identified until now. All this has not yet been demonstrated in an incontestable way and can only be demonstrated if other researchers take up these studies.

Another issue could concern the whole of the human sciences. Is it a fundamental mechanism that we could find in psychology, sociology, psychotherapy? This would presuppose applied research in fields other than wars and the jolts of history caused by the collective unconscious.

Overview of the historical evolution of concepts

updated on August 24, 2023