Warning

This site is first and foremost a means of sharing research in progress, which itself appears to be something of a UFO in the world of humanities research. You will find here the main texts. Research is gradually gaining in maturity and is now able to present relevant beginnings of proof, even if they completely confuse minds that claim to be rational and quickly reject such concepts without even examining them. Critical and constructive minds are welcome. Just read the latest news and related documents to understand the latest developments.

Program 2024

• Update of periodicity calculation: The periodicity of the ” War Cycle” was initially calculated in 2001 on the basis of major wars since 1900. The list of wars used for this calculation needs to be updated and the calculation redone to confirm or invalidate the initial periodicity of 3085 days.
  As of January 24, 2024, the calculation has been redone. The conclusion is that the periodicity is 3095 days. This 10-day difference has little impact on all the research carried out and on the results. This calculation phase has shown that there are several possible cycles, which could provoke much debate on the subject. As a reminder, this study refers to the ” War Cycle” known as the “Return War Cycle”, indicating that the “War Cycle” studied by this study may not be the only one, but that the others have not been studied as part of this study.
• Define a method for recalibrating the “War Cycle” studied: As previously indicated, nature does not know perfect cyclical phenomena, in the form of a mathematical sinusoid. For example, the “solar activity cycle” has an average of 11 years, but from one cycle to the next there can be strong variations, with the periodicity oscillating between 2 values such as 8 and 13. In the case of the “Solar Cycle”, astronomers use their measurements to pinpoint the exact position of solar activity peaks. In the case of the “War Cycle”, something has to be found.
  A recalibration principle has been defined and is currently being tested. The results of this recalibration principle are good, improving possible forecasts. However, we lack the necessary hindsight, and we’ll wait a while before explaining it publicly.
• Understanding the sticking points: The way in which the results obtained are presented provokes reactions that are not very rational. Often these are epidermal reactions, unconstructed and unargued.
  The best thing would be to have an on-going contradictory debate to help understand these reactions, but the absence of any response or reasoned reaction makes such a debate difficult.
• Update of all documents
  This is planned for 2024. The lack of interest in these studies means that this is a low priority. The decision has not been taken to make them available on this site.

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Latest News in October 2023

• The Israeli-Palestinian war which began on October 7 is a further confirmation of the “The Recurrent (or Return) War Cycle”
  A war was expected and it happened.
• To understand the accuracy of the forecasts made for the 2 major wars of the 2022-2026 period (Russia-Ukraine and Israeli-Palestinian), we recommend reading the version before the outbreak of war in Ukraine  War Peace and Cyclic Phenomenon – EN-us – JBR – 2022-01-23B. By reading the forecasts section and the corresponding contexts, you can get an idea of what knowledge of the “War Cycle” can achieve. One of the reference authors, Quincy Wright, noted that he had been unable to make forecasts because his cyclical system was irrelevant. Conversely, we could say that regular successful forecasts confirm the accuracy of the “War Cycle” study. However, the intellectual blockage caused by this study, among certain researchers, prevents them from seeing these results and thus confirming the existence of this “War Cycle”. Why this blockage? Complicated: this is research that’s off the beaten track, which may explain the impression that they are going backwards on this subject.
• A major breakthrough took place in 2023. Thanks to the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), it is now possible to demonstrate over the period 1989-2022 that all amplification phases of the War Cycle have produced an increase and a peak in the number of war-related deaths in armed conflicts involving states. This is what is known as the “materialization of the War Cycle“, which has thus gone from being a validated hypothesis to a demonstrable certainty.
  To understand this advance, read the accessible text 2023-10-23 EN NR-1 War Cycle Materialization with Fatalities
  This is a convincing piece of evidence to demonstrate the “War Cycle”.
• With regard to the war in Sudan, it has been demonstrated that the wars in Sudan are affected by the “War Cycle”. The elements of presentation and demonstration are not present on this site. They will be included in the next update of the “War Cycle”.

End of news

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Several current conflicts can be illustrated by the Unconscious Clock.

The most spectacular is the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Several concepts and applications can be found here.

• The 25-year “Return” from the fall of the Berlin Wall and the disintegration of the USSR has been visible since 2014, in an “opposite” form, i.e. it’s an inverse trend to the original event.
  For example, the trend towards the disappearance of the blocs that emerged from the Second World War is being transformed, in the opposite way, into a trend towards the reconstitution of the blocs.
• another example: the trend towards the break-up of the USSR is transformed, in the opposite direction, into a trend towards the rebuilding of an equivalent power.
• It’s not a single return that’s been visible since 2014, but a set of returns that are almost an inverse parallelism of History (this is the first example of inverse parallelism. It is currently being studied. For the moment, examples of parallelism are not yet published on this site.)
  The “Recurrent War Cycle” gives rise to 2 examples in the Russia-Ukraine conflict: the war of 2014 and the war of 2022.

The application of the Recurrent War Cycle indicated before 2022 a possible war in Europe over the period 2022-2026, most likely in a former socialist country with a direct or indirect Russian component. If it’s too late to convince you of this prediction, it’s not too late to reflect and become aware of this strange phenomenon. If it can be used for forecasting, then there is a very real phenomenon, even if it is unknown or denied. To learn more about this phenomenon, please refer to the document the “Recurrent War Cycle”.

A cyclical phenomenon that has an influence on our collective behavior and in particular wars?

It is necessary to open a debate on the subject, to bring elements for or against to make mature this subject which influences us without most of us being conscious of it.

How can we summarize this cyclical phenomenon in a few lines?

A cyclic phenomenon has been identified: the cycle is about 8 and a half years or a multiple and most often 3 times, that is to say a little more than 25 years or a multiple of 25 years.

This periodic phenomenon can be expressed in different ways

• It can bring back the past but in a distorted and most often unconscious form. This phenomenon is called “Return of the past”.
• It can exacerbate tensions and favor wars or escalations. This is studied through the “The Recurrent War Cycle” which does not determine all wars but can favor war or resolution depending on whether it is in a phase of amplification or in a phase of attenuation
• It can, in exceptional cases, give the impression of a certain parallelism of history. This subject is just mentioned here but not yet explained on this site

What is the interest of such a cyclic phenomenon?

The first one is to notice that collective events, like crises or wars, which seem to be unpredictable, follow a logic which can only be understood by taking cognizance of this cyclic phenomenon. It is fascinating to see this. It is disturbing to admit it. It can give some people the impression of a formidable regression of thought which returns to a world where we imagined, in the Middle Ages, a great hidden clockwork which guided our destiny. This phenomenon has an influence but is not deterministic.

What are the stakes of these studies?

We can imagine, based on current knowledge, that most of the major wars of the 20th and 21st centuries have an additional cause that is unconscious today and that is this cyclical phenomenon. We do not yet know the real origin of this phenomenon. Presumably it is not as regular as a beautiful mathematical sinusoid.
If further studies were to confirm this, it would shed a new light on all those wars which we thought were defending a just cause but for which one of the important causes had not been identified until now. All this has not yet been demonstrated in an incontestable way and can only be demonstrated if other researchers take up these studies.

Another issue could concern the whole of the human sciences. Is it a fundamental mechanism that we could find in psychology, sociology, psychotherapy? This would presuppose applied research in fields other than wars and the jolts of history caused by the collective unconscious.

Overview of the historical evolution of concepts

updated on January 25, 2024