The Clock of the Unconscious


 

The Russia-Ukraine war ticks almost all the boxes of the different concepts and theories of the Unconscious Clock.

  • War Cycle: a war in Europe was expected in the period 2022-2026
  • Return of the past (Return Theory) through the Return in 2014 from the disintegration of the USSR
  • Parallelism of History: in reverse mode. Since the Reverse Return from 2014, the guiding thread of Russia’s behavior is to restore a greatness equivalent to that of the USSR. This is the behavior that is becoming similar to that of the USSR again.

However, to explain everything would be to present too many new concepts at once.

The 2022 objectives are limited:

  • Make presentations of the “War Cycle“: there have already been several in 2022
  • Reformat the “War Cycle” topic into a more “scientific” form close to the standard framework of the publications, (this was done based on the advice of a PRIO researcher)
  • To submit a text on the “War Cycle” to an international journal that might be interested (done following the advice of the same researcher)

As for the rest (Returns from the past, parallelism of History), it is interesting, but it is more difficult to digest in a rational way and could lead to reactions of rejection of what seems safe and rational. It will only be presented if there are motivated people who demonstrate that they understand the state of research on the “Cycle of Wars”.

With the Russia-Ukraine War, one should find a news topic directly concerned, but once the war starts, everything that is not military is almost rejected.

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This is a site for sharing research: studies and experiments

  • The studies are mainly oriented around the concept of the Clock of the Unconscious which gathers several theories that allow to understand and predict wars or other events that are not wars.
    The studies are limited to a result in a form of presentation, whether in paper form or direct presentation.
    Among the studies:
    • The returns of the past (Return Theory) allowing to predict and understand conflicts and crises (not necessarily wars),
      Several applications have been derived from this research allowing to better understand the unconscious motivations and to show strange parallels in history.
    • The “War Cycle” which is important to understand many wars,
    • the modeling of the start of wars with the “War Cycle”,
    • and complementary research proposed by external contributors and which can be published on this site.
  • The experiments correspond to attempts to settle or apply the research to practical subjects such as forecasts.
    Experiments can concern any subject, but are only carried out if they seem useful and if there is an established link with actors capable of acting with the actors of the conflict and on the ground, as well as a sufficient feedback of information to make an analysis.
    In April 2022, there is no experimentation underway and no attempt: the conditions are not met to do anything. It is a pity that the Europeans do not propose any attempt to get out of the Ukraine-Russia war. Being satisfied with reinforcing economic retaliation measures, embargoes or the dismissal of diplomats will not lead to any viable solution.
    As for arms support, it is useful to avoid a total defeat of Ukraine but it only prolongs the war.
    We are open to any initiative and we could help to build a ceasefire that would hold taking into account previous reflections and experiments, but here again there is no serious proposal for the moment.

2022 Achievements

  • Based on a list of wars from the “Correlates war” V4 project, a statistical calculation was made to determine the proportion of wars started during the amplification and attenuation phases throughout the 20th century. The result appears significant. The interest of this exercise is that it is based on a list of wars elaborated by others than the author and that these wars concern all regions of the world during a century. You can find the result of this calculation and the data used in the article Does the War Cycle cause more wars during the phases of amplification?
  • Is there a cyclical phenomenon that favors Wars? This document  takes up all the questions around the “War Cycle”, including the predictions of wars over the period 2022-2026. The presentation has been restructured. This document will be the basis for the presentations and debates that will take place in 2022.
    This update contains:
    – the update of the “War Cycle”,
    – the update of the contexts,
    – the 2022-2026 forecasts,
    – a complete restructuring,
    – the latest developments related to this theme.
    This update is considered essential to understand the current tensions between Europe and Russia and the current and future wars  during the period from 2022 to 2026.

The war started in February in Ukraine by Russia confirms the analysis made on Europe but worries for the future. Such a strong war at the beginning of its amplification phase is a very bad sign. It is like the first war of a black series in a climate of arbitrariness and impunity which sends us back to the USSR in its darkest hours. To be complete, it would be necessary to add to the “War Cycle ” an explanation on the “Returns of the past” (or Return Theory) which explains in part the behavior of Russia and Putin and the resurgence of a past that we thought was over.

  • A presentation  is available  on request
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Is there a cyclical phenomenon that influences our collective behavior and in particular wars?

This is the question that this site tries to answer by presenting troubling elements, gathered over the years (from 1988 to today).

The purpose of this site is to present the existing elements. It is certain that they will appear insufficient as definitive proof. They are only intuitions which have already given rise to some studies and for which there is a long list of complementary studies to be carried out. We could keep dozens of researchers busy for years and years. This would allow us to have something more solid and credible.

We are only at the stage of presenting the initial ideas and the troubling elements that allow us to think that we have stumbled upon a fundamental phenomenon.

It is necessary to open a debate on the subject, to bring elements for or against to make mature this subject which influences us without most of us being conscious of it.  When the debate will be well advanced and each element will have been weighed, contested, validated, refused, then we will be able to conclude to the reality or not of this cyclic phenomenon.

How to summarize in a few lines this cyclic phenomenon?

A cyclic phenomenon has been identified: the cycle is about 8 and a half years or a multiple and most often 3 times, ie a little over 25 years or a multiple of 25 years.

This periodic phenomenon can be expressed in different ways

    • It can bring back the past but in a distorted and most often unconscious form. This phenomenon is called “Return from the past“.
    • It can exacerbate tensions and favor wars or escalations. This is studied through the “War Cycle” which does not determine all wars but can favor war or resolution depending on whether it is in a phase of amplification or in a phase of attenuation
    • It can, in exceptional cases, give the impression of a certain parallelism of history. This subject is just mentioned here but not demonstrated at this stage

What can be the interest of such a cyclic phenomenon?

The first is to notice that collective events, such as crises or wars, which seem to be unpredictable, follow a logic that can only be understood by becoming aware of this cyclical phenomenon. It is fascinating to see this. It is disturbing to admit it. It can give some people the impression of a formidable regression of thought which returns to a world where we imagined, in the Middle Ages, a great hidden clockwork which guided our destiny. It is a bit like that without being so simplistic. This phenomenon has an influence but is not deterministic.

This has consequences for fundamental research on the mechanisms of thought and unconscious collective influence, but it also allows for various applied research.

What is at stake in these studies?

They are important even if they arouse incredulity.

We can imagine, based on current knowledge, that most of the major wars of the 20th and 21st centuries have a partial cause that is unconscious today and that is this cyclical phenomenon. We do not yet know the real origin of this phenomenon. Probably it is not as regular as a beautiful mathematical sinusoid, but we will not be able to explain the two world wars of the 20th century without recognizing and accepting this cause which is today invisible and unconscious. For some scientists, or recognized eminent persons, to identify such invisible causes is sacrilegious and without any justification. But if other complementary studies were to confirm this, it would shed a new light on all those wars which we thought were defending a just cause but for which one of the important causes had not been identified until now. All this has not yet been demonstrated in an indisputable way and can only be demonstrated if other researchers take up these studies. At best, it would take 10 years to arrive at such a shared conclusion, if dozens of researchers were to add a few missing bricks to what has been started.

Overview

updated on August 7, 2022