Presentations of the “War Cycle” in different contexts

The contexts presented:

Why these contexts?

If you have understood the modeling of the triggering of wars , the cases where the “War Cycle” will trigger a war are usually recurring conflicts that are always on the verge of explosion. Always a recurring and almost permanent tension that will turn into a new episode of war. Moreover, these recurring conflicts are of very long duration and make it possible to verify it over several successive cycles.

The contexts are thus chosen as being able to make some predictions.

The author has therefore chosen the contexts that are of particular interest to him, leaving others to present other contexts. We must leave a space of creativity for everyone who might be interested.

What do these contexts demonstrate?

  • That the periodicity of the wars observed is not linked to a single conflict, which is an argument often put forward by those who do not even bother to consult these data and give a definitive judgment to the punch without Even look at the data presented,
  • That this phenomenon concerns the whole earth, in different cultures and continents.

Are there regions that are not demonstrable in this way?

YES, there are 2 recognized

  • South America

South America has not experienced prolonged war between states for more than 80 years. Just a few skirmishes, but virtually no wars and no usable data to present them in the form of a context.

There are a few internal wars that partially check this phenomenon, but again the data are insufficient for it to be really significant.

Why South America has so few wars?

It seems that there are several reasons:

1 – First there is no near continent with which wars would be possible,

2 – Then there are few states on the whole of South America: they do not need to spread to the neighbor

3 – Finally, the natural boundaries between states mean that possible friction between states is limited.

Allison Fedirka of published in February 2016 an excellent article developing these 3 reasons to understand why South America is really apart. I recommend you consult it.

  • Africa

There are so many wars in Africa that when I made a test of context or statistical analysis on wars, from the list accessible under wikipedia, the first result is that we don’t see the “War Cycle”

However, if major conflicts are retained, we can begin to see something equivalent to what is seen in the contexts that have been retained.

Yes, there are some African conflicts that are recognized as recurring and follow the same laws, but there are too many wars to make a “natural” sort, as can be done in the case of the Israeli-Arab or Indo-Israeli conflict Pakistan or in Europe.

In the state of research on wars in most countries, the “War Cycle” is not demonstrable in Africa without the experts agreeing on criteria for selecting major wars or not.

For an overview of the “War Cycle” including all the contexts, you can view and download The War Cycle that covers the essentials of all pages of the “War Cycle” in a single document.