War Cycle in the context of India-Pakistan

It is important to read first the Methodology for the presentation of the “War Cycle” in order to understand how the results are presented and what they mean

The War cycle applied to the Indo-Pakistani Conflict

Indo-Pakistani Wars deviation

Data

The war episodes indicated are not disputable. Putting periods of tension in them is more debatable.

Since the discovery of the “War Cycle” in 1999 there have been no more wars, but more or less important incidents.

It is the only recurring conflict that gives the impression of stopping at tensions without going as far as wars since the discovery of the “War Cycle”.

Forecast

There has been no war in the last 20 years, but as this recurring conflict illustrates the “Cycle of Wars”, this context is kept and continues to be presented, even if it is more tensions that are expected and observed than real wars.

Actors in India and Pakistan have shown restraint in recent years, without the reasons being clear, perhaps simply because a few unidentified actors regularly worry about keeping this conflict at a level of tension without it degenerating into war.

However, in the absence of serious negotiations seeking to find a new viable political balance between the two countries, we consider that there will one day be a war. Most likely it will be during a period of amplification (period of 2024 or 2032 for example) but not only. As moderation fades, the risk becomes real again and it must be kept in mind and followed.

Moreover, Hindu nationalism rather favors escalation. The period from 2024 (April 2022 to June 2026) should be particularly turbulent.

Updated October 26, 2020