By the end of 2027, we should have a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia. None of the current proposals from any of the belligerents or non-belligerents provide grounds to assert that the ceasefire will hold or that the system put in place to monitor it will be credible.

From 2014 through the fall of 2021, Naej DRANER monitored the ceasefires that were implemented. All observations and comments were consistently sent via email to a European diplomat stationed in Europe. This diplomat (and his country) never responded and will never boast of having received anything, for reasons he will likely never explain to you. He and his country will probably remain in denial. They were even given advance notice of the foreseeable wars in the years to come, after 2021.

There is therefore potentially a witness to this work that was done but never given due credit. This work outlined what needed to be done to achieve a lasting ceasefire, which would likely have prevented the second war that followed.

Knowing the Europeans and their great difficulty in adapting, it is unlikely that they will act differently or more effectively than they did during the Donbass War from 2014 to 2021.

However, they could take their past experience into account. With that in mind, I am providing two texts for your reference:

• A text analyzing an SMM report from that time. Its value lies in reminding us that, according to statistics from that period, in 2019 there were, on average, more than 800 violations per day.
  2020-10-28A Analysis of SMM Report EN-US
  
• A summary of what needs to be done, dating from 2017 and updated several times. No one knows whether it has ever been read or taken into account. It is recommended that it be used as a foundational text for preparing the upcoming ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine.
  ND201707003 Ukraine Ceasefire – update – 2020-09-23 EN-US

Europeans are advised to consult these two texts and contact the diplomat and the country in question, who will be happy to provide further information. (Once you consider that it’s the smallest country in the EU and that the diplomat has served in Paris and Rome, it’s not too complicated.) He might tell you that he never receives his emails, but that’s his problem, not mine. I still have a few archived documents, should bad faith prevail: he’ll tell you an interesting story. We should give him a small chance to explain himself honestly. In any case, the other diplomats have behaved even worse.)

Next, we’ll prepare this ceasefire, taking into account the experience we’ve gained and the study conducted by Naej DRANER from 2014 to the end of 2021—if you’ll allow us—about which we can provide further details at a later time.

September 26, 2026

Naej DRANER