It has been nearly 80 years since 1949, when the Kuomintang-controlled government of the Republic of China established itself in Taiwan. The more time passes, the more pronounced the differences with the People’s Republic of China will become.

Can there be permanent coexistence within a single country? That would be desirable.

Seen from the outside, China has launched impressive military programs, as if its military strength alone were enough to resolve the Taiwan issue. Attempts to address the Taiwan question from a peaceful and political perspective seem slim.

The management of Hong Kong and its governance by the People’s Republic of China do not bode well for the coexistence of the Taiwanese system within the People’s Republic of China.

“One Country, Two Systems” was the slogan of those who wanted to believe that Hong Kong would retain its unique characteristics for at least 50 years. The current reality is “One Country, One System.” Admittedly, certain aspects of Hong Kong’s distinctiveness have been preserved, but no democratic freedom of expression has survived. The sentencing of Jimmy Lai, a former local media mogul, in February 2026 is the most striking illustration of this.

What are the possible avenues for envisioning Taiwan’s coexistence within the People’s Republic of China?

• The evolution of China’s single-party Communist system toward a multiparty system could be one path forward, but it is unlikely in the short term, given that the Communist Party is a key pillar of the Chinese state,
• The possibility of open and public discussions among Chinese leaders could signal a shift toward a diversity of opinions, but this does not fit with the usual image of the Chinese government.

In the short term, releasing Jimmy Lai and allowing him to rebuild a free press—even if limited—could be a way to buy time and appear credible in the willingness to accept changes that accommodate certain aspects of Taiwan.

Imagine you are a negotiator and want to make a proposal to the people of Taiwan to convince them that they will be treated well within the People’s Republic of China. How credible would you be, given the success of the “One Country, Two Systems” slogan? Probably none.

Is there a possible solution? Probably, but not the way things are being handled today. Chinese leaders may let a negotiator try something, without giving him any means to succeed, just to ease their conscience before moving on to military action.

Would Mao Zedong have agreed to launch a military operation without first attempting genuine negotiations, even if it meant shaking the People’s Republic of China to its very core? There is no simple answer to this question.

It will be difficult to convince Taiwan to give up its dream of independence, and some concessions will have to be made in order to arrive at credible proposals for the future.

Jimmy Lai’s release would be a real test and a first step. But he must not be deported from Hong Kong. He must remain there, free to engage in whatever activities he chooses.

It will be difficult for the current Chinese and Taiwanese leaders, but we should try and find a way to take action. It will take time and a great deal of effort to explore every possible angle of this issue, including options that seem unthinkable today.

We have five years to take action. After that, we enter the realm of future risks. (See the “Quesako Cycle” for more information.)

Naej DRANER

May 18, 2016