Appendix 5 of Jean-Baptiste Renard’s book A Cyclical Phenomenon that favors Wars, published in french by L’Harmattan, contains war forecasts made in December 2021 regarding the Arab-Israeli conflict. The appendix considered a war between 2023 and 2025 to be likely.

Why was a war likely? Because of an understanding of the “Quésako Cycle” and an analysis of the Arab-Israeli conflict.

October 7, 2023, and the war that followed confirmed this analysis.

An Israeli acquaintance commented, “You predicted what the Mossad didn’t.” But this Israeli woman did not understand the “Quésako Cycle” and was quick to conclude that it was impossible to predict this war. She refused to accept reality.

Will Israel ever understand? And will it accept it?

In the wake of the trauma of October 7, 2023, Israel launched a series of wars on all fronts, just as the United States had launched multiple wars after September 11, 2001. Afghanistan, the war on terror, the war in Iraq. What remains in 2026 of all these wars waged by the United States starting in 2001? Afghanistan has been retaken by the Taliban; terrorism is still present everywhere and has even spread to Africa. Iraq is a shadow of its previous state.

What will remain in 20 years of the wars waged by Israel since 2023? Jewish intellectuals point out that all these wars will cause the international community to forget the Holocaust, and that this image of a country that destroys other countries and populations—without having built anything for the future—will slowly take its place. These wars are like an indelible mark on Israel’s behavior: no one will forget.

The key point of the “Quésako Cycle” that Israel needs to understand is in this chart

Will Israel understand and accept this?

The Israeli and Jewish scientific community is significant. Is it capable of engaging with what remains the remarkable case of the “Quésako Cycle”? It is probably too early for Israelis to take a step back. It may take them a few years to understand—or an eternity to deny—the “Quésako Cycle,” which is a disruptive element in the unconscious behavior of Israel and its enemies. They are both bound by the same phenomenon, which remains unknown to them.

Naej DRANER

May 8, 2026