Whether it’s in 6 months, 1 year, or 2 years, there will be a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine.

This ceasefire will require between 1,000 and 5,000 personnel to oversee and maintain it. It will be the largest ceasefire line ever established, meaning it will be fragile at first and will begin with hundreds of daily violations.

Between 2014 and 2022, there was never a single day of ceasefire without any violations. There have been days with few violations, but for several years, daily violations numbered in the hundreds, even thousands.

Today, the only existing initiative is that of the “volunteer” countries, but a strategy intended to act as a deterrent will never be enough to ensure a ceasefire. To believe that a credible military force will deter daily violations is wishful thinking and likely also stems from a lack of understanding of the Donbass ceasefire period between 2014 and 2022.

Starting in late August, a series of articles will be published on the subject, ultimately forming a coherent whole.

Starting now, interested countries can identify the necessary resources:

• 2,000 unarmed ceasefire inspectors and observers (which may be increased to 5,000), with the security profile necessary to operate in the field under difficult and dangerous conditions
• 500 personnel for logistical support
• 500 vehicles clearly identifiable as part of this mission, as many of which as possible should be armored,
• Sufficient communication equipment (telephones and radios)
• Infrared binoculars, including at least 100 pairs of artillery observer binoculars capable of identifying a target’s GPS coordinates
• and everything needed to support everyone’s needs

Nothing will happen on this matter between now and August 20

August 2, 2026

Naej DRANER