Any complete destruction of an existing security system leads to civil war

News notes

There are several key points to keep in mind when seeking to reform the security system of a state or a quasi-state entity:

  • A system for maintaining security and public order is essential, regardless of its form,
  • The complete destruction of the existing security system leads to a civil war,
  • An army is often unable to ensure long-term, reliable law and order.

When attempting to replace one security system with another, it is not enough simply to dismantle the old one; one must be able to define and implement the new system—or transform the old security system into a new one.

The classic mistake is to rely solely on military force while claiming that this is the new security system: it is not integrated, and more often than not, it is ineffective.

Currently, there are two cases directly related to this issue:

  • Hamas in the Gaza Strip,
  • the aim of destroying the Islamic Republic and establishing a new regime. The most likely scenario is that if the Islamic Republic is completely destroyed, a civil war will break out and could last for years.

Hamas in Gaza

The current proposal in the Trump plan calls for the complete eradication of Hamas and Gaza’s security services and their replacement with an international Arab military force. This will likely never work.

The goal should be to establish new law enforcement agencies rather than eliminate all the old ones, which would amount to the same thing since the missions, personnel, hierarchies, and organizational structure would be completely overhauled.

To do this, you would need to:

  • set up one or more tent camps to train thousands of future security personnel, along with all the necessary logistics and equipment
  • Open recruitment offices that will recruit all potential candidates on-site: no staff will be hired at any level other than the lowest rank. Anyone deemed unsuitable for service in the security forces must be offered a long-term job and provided with ongoing support. Recruitment will never be conducted on a group basis; only individuals will be hired, without any rank.
  • to have instructors who are capable of performing operational duties (i.e., commanding patrols or units while also serving as instructors)
  • Develop a training program for the next three weeks, starting with a week of physical tests, followed by eliminations for those who do not pass
  • work with future local authorities (or the Palestinian Authority) to establish a minimum set of laws or regulations to be enforced

This operation to train new security forces must not be under the control of any army (Israeli or otherwise). However, a group of inspectors must be established, composed of one-third Israelis, one-third Palestinians, and one-third international inspectors (Arab or otherwise). This inspection group has access to everything, everywhere, based on the intelligence known to the inspectors. Today, if there is a problem, the Israeli army bombs and kills what it perceives to be the problem. Tomorrow, it will be the inspection group that is tasked with addressing the problem and must resolve it immediately (within a few hours) with the assistance of the new security forces.

Iran

The priority should not be the dismantling of the current security forces, but their gradual transformation.

For example, there are no unarmed riot police capable of deploying anywhere. The mullahs’ regime is demonstrating its incompetence by sending armed Revolutionary Guards to confront the crowds, as if they were going to fight a foreign army that does not exist. This incompetence has resulted in thousands (perhaps even tens of thousands) of deaths, as the authorities are unable to restore order without a bloodbath.

Since there are no plans for foreign troops to conduct ground operations, it is unrealistic to claim that new security forces can be trained there.

Replacing the Revolutionary Guards with properly trained and equipped riot police is an important step. If this proves impossible, there is a risk of a protracted civil war or a harsh and ruthless dictatorship, even under an officially weakened regime.

Naej DRANER
Naej DRANER is a political and security analyst and solutions architect.

Updated on March 21, 2026