The trauma of September 11, 2001, and that of October 7, 2023, had the same effect: the victims (the United States in 2001 and Israel in 2023) embarked on a state of perpetual war.
The United States went to war in Afghanistan against the Taliban and terrorists, and then against Iraq, which was accused of developing weapons of mass destruction that existed only in the American imagination but did not prevent the war, which turned out to be a disaster. The 2003 war against Iraq was a military victory but a political and diplomatic disaster.
Israel has launched a war against Hamas, then against Hezbollah, and finally against Iran. The war has been ongoing since 2023.
When war becomes a permanent state, as it did in the years following 2001 and as it is now, the “Quésako Cycle” seems to have ceased to exist. The wars in Afghanistan in 2001, in Iraq in 2003, and against Iran in 2025 and then in 2026 have no direct connection to the “Quésako Cycle” and may even seem to contradict it.
In the study on the “materialization of the Quésako cycle,” it was possible to demonstrate that the “Quésako cycle” did indeed influence the war in Iraq, if one considers the number of war-related deaths, which suggests a manifestation of the “Quésako cycle” (see the Iraq Body Count website or the book “A Cyclical Phenomenon That Promotes Wars?” (Editions l’Harmattan).
Will the war that is breaking out in Iran have the same effect, escalating into a civil war that lasts for years? It is too early to say.
Throughout history, there has been another period when wars were permanent, to the point that the Quésako Cycle was not apparent: the Napoleonic Wars. When war becomes a permanent state, as is now the case for Israel, successive wars seem to contradict the “Quésako Cycle.” This cycle is then less visible, but it becomes apparent again after these episodes of war.
Did the United States come out on top after the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq? No, it lost on both counts: the Taliban have returned to power, undoing more than 20 years of military occupation by the United States and its allies. Iraq’s political system is as unstable as its Lebanese model.
Will Israel come out on top? It will buy itself some time, but it will still be faced with the same problems it has failed to resolve. It is only a matter of time before another military victory turns into a political and diplomatic disaster.
The nations of the world will not forget that Israel destroyed Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Iranian state. These memories will be stronger than anything else. They might forget the Holocaust and realize that the victim of the past has become the oppressor, believing itself to be the savior of its future.
March 16, 2026