Naej DRANER has studied and continues to study numerous conflicts and wars. There are typical situations that are considered mistakes in governance. My intention is not to judge anyone, but to help them understand that mistakes can arise from a lack of understanding of these typical situations, misinformation, or even blindness.
Incompetence is not irreversible. All it takes is to learn and understand—provided one has the intellectual honesty to acknowledge it.
The question concerns the deadly clashes that took place in Iran in January 2026
In January, following protests in Iran, thousands of innocent, unarmed people were killed in Iran. Some even speak of tens of thousands of deaths. The Iranian regime has not provided any objective assessment of the situation. When such a situation occurs in a country, it is because the leaders have failed to make the right decisions. Deploying the army and armed militias instead of riot police is a classic, deadly mistake. Given Mojtaba Khamenei’s role in January 2026, I have one question and one question alone to ask him: Did you act as an intermediary between Ali Khamenei and the Iranian security forces to launch the crackdown on the Iranian protests in January 2026, and what orders did you give?
His answer would reveal whether this is a problem of governance and competence at the highest level of the Iranian state, or a blind and inappropriate application of policy by those in charge of internal security in Iran.
If he is competent and well-informed, Mojtaba Khamenei should have known that, in most countries, there are riot police whose role is to peacefully quell protests. There may be a few deaths, but this is very rare. If a country’s government is incompetent, armed forces equipped with lethal weapons are sent in to carry out a crackdown that results in bloodshed. Such a crackdown can cause the protests to spread and undermine the ruling regime.
Was there a real external threat in January 2026?
NO, but the war—which was launched by the United States and Israel a few weeks later, on February 28, 2026—obscured that reality.
Why are this question and answer important?
This would help determine the Iranian Supreme Leader’s ability to extricate Iran from a war into which it seems to be willingly sinking, viewing it as an act of bravery and power when it may in fact be nothing more than the incompetence and blindness of a regime. Everything is being done to expand this war, threaten neighbors, and undermine the partial agreement of June 17, 2026. This agreement was a thorn in the side of radical opponents, and the violation by the Revolutionary Guards—who targeted oil tankers—has reignited escalation and war. Of course, the U.S. response to Iran’s violation was also a violation, but it was a knee-jerk reaction to a deliberate provocation by those who did not want an agreement.
Depending on the response, the Persian Gulf Council—which has been placed on standby—may or may not be reactivated.
It is astonishing to see that a religious figure expects nothing more from his religion than to develop weapons and launch a full-scale, all-out war, backed by threats.
A secondary question that might be asked is whether he truly believes in his God, yet recognizes no power in Him other than military might.
I am simply a nonbeliever who observes that religions play a major role in the outbreak of wars and in the intransigence of negotiations.
Is there a pilot in Iran?
The only known decisions made by the Supreme Leader are those concerning the recent military reorganization. Does he consider himself a commander-in-chief, since he is unable to demonstrate any ability to govern? … Or are these decisions solely those of the military establishment, which sees itself as the sole master and leader?
August 19, 2026
Naej DRANER