On Saturday, February 28, Israel and the United States launched a military operation against Iran.

The official objectives are:

• Eliminate the Iranian nuclear threat,
• Destroy the missiles and the capacity to produce them,
• End the current regime.

Most wars do not achieve the objectives for which they are launched. This will also be the case for this new war.

Overthrowing a regime through air strikes alone can, at best, only lead to civil war if the entire security system collapses. In this case, each leader who is eliminated will be replaced. The Iranian regime does not depend solely on a few individuals, but on a system. Even if the system is hated and bloodthirsty, it knows how to renew itself, even if more than 100 leaders were eliminated.

In Libya, the end of Gaddafi’s regime led to civil war. It was not a system but a dictator and a few of his close associates who ran the regime. The end of the Libyan regime created a vacuum, resulting in civil war and instability from which Libya has still not recovered 15 years later.

The nuclear threat will remain as long as enriched uranium remains in Iranian hands. Ballistic capabilities may be reduced but probably not completely destroyed. The Iranian regime will be weakened, that is certain. Regime change is unlikely.

What collateral effects will there be for the United States and Israel? Probably an increase in attacks in 2026 and 2027 and a major oil crisis following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The peacemaker has turned into a warmonger, prolonging and reawakening the dormant war.

How long will this war last? Israel and the United States say as long as it takes. A few days? A few weeks? As long as it takes to destroy everything that can be destroyed. And then what? Since there will be no ground troops, it will end. A civil war? Unlikely. There will always be enough Revolutionary Guards and militiamen to maintain a precarious order. On the other hand, the Iranian population as a whole will suffer from increased economic insecurity.

*** Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version) ***

Naej DRANER

March 1, 2026

Postscript: Some will rightly point out that this new war does not confirm the “Quésako Cycle.” The observation is correct, but when a war begins during a phase of attenuation, it can either end quickly or turn into a long war during which the number of victims multiplies during the subsequent amplification phase. See the war against Iraq in 2003. Initially, this war seemed to challenge the cycle, but it became a pillar of it by highlighting the cycle’s materialization through the number of war victims.
*** Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version) ***