What kills an idea is not discussion, but indifference and the lack of debate.

The “Quesako Cycle” is likely the most significant discovery regarding wars that we need to understand and promote. However, the “Quésako Cycle” can only be fully understood through a whole series of new concepts and research:

• the statistics on wars cited in the “Correlates of War” (COW) studies, that is, a wide range of information related to wars,
• The concept of “context,” as presented in the book “A Cyclical Phenomenon that favors War,”
• the concept of the threshold for the outbreak of war, presented in the same book,
• the rules used for war predictions, presented in the same book

So far, a few people have listened politely but have never spoken up, one way or the other.

The concepts presented here are opposite to Western thinking. Indeed, the West has always been content to claim that it resolves wars by winning them. For most contemporary leaders, peace means winning the war. And to save face, everyone strives to prove that they will ultimately be militarily vindicated.

Whether it is Russia, Ukraine, Europe, the United States, China, Israel, Hamas, Hezbollah, or Iran, they all believe that the coming peace is their victory—which they see as the source of peace—when in fact it is merely a means of preparing for the next war.

A debate would require everyone to express their opinions and do so rationally. A debate requires listening to all arguments, including those that are uncomfortable.

It is time to return to the basics: “Let a hundred flowers bloom again, and let everyone speak on such a subject.”

A debate will lead everyone to refine their arguments and find a suitable and convincing line of reasoning. The “Quésako Cycle” will only survive if such a debate takes place. For now, there have only been a few polite comments limited to a select few circles; these comments aren’t even being shared openly. No one has objectively presented all of this research in a convincing manner.

It is much more a Chinese than a Western mindset to dare to acknowledge the importance of such a cycle; yet the Chinese would still need to dare to speak openly among themselves, rather than in conventional, non-contradictory discourse.

Two major wars (Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas-Hezbollah-Iran) continue without anyone daring to present the “Quésako Cycle” as the most likely cause of these two wars. Are we burying our heads in the sand, or are we refusing to engage in debate?

June 10, 2026