The Strait of Hormuz crisis is unlikely to happen again. Saudi Arabia is set to expand its pipelines, which will allow it to bypass the Strait of Hormuz; the United Arab Emirates is set to double its pipeline capacity; and Iraq has planned an alternative solution. Qatar, Oman, and a few other countries will remain dependent on the Strait of Hormuz, but if another crisis were to occur—provided the planned projects are completed by then—less than half of the traffic would be affected.

Customers who were dependent on the Strait of Hormuz will take steps to reduce their dependence.

There could be a temporary, significant increase in maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, but this is expected to be temporary for the next two years.

Will the Persian Gulf Council ever see the light of day? Probably not; the major countries that depend on the Strait of Hormuz are taking a different approach. They prefer the security of a pipeline to the vagaries of a single country’s whims within an organization it claims to control.

It made sense and will continue to make sense for their collective future, but the mood is far from cheerful. They’re under indirect attack from Iran, which resorts to threats and blackmail, and are being held hostage by their great American ally, which has committed—on their behalf—to making them cough up a few hundred billion.

Are we implicated by the American promises of funding? I’m not. If wealth is the art of making others pay for what they promise, it’s easy to see why they’re so rich.

In its culture, Iran of past generations had a genuine tradition of collective water management. The Islamic Republic of Iran has squandered this reality by making inappropriate decisions over the years. Some even say that certain major Iranian cities might have to relocate as a result of incompetent water management in a country that had historically managed its water resources effectively.

Only time will tell.

June 24, 2026

Naej DRANER