October 7, 2023 was a similar event for Israel to September 11 for the Americans.

In both cases, there was a military headlong rush that resembled vengeful carnage rather than a real war.

In both cases, the event justified the unjustifiable. This lasted more than 2 years for the Americans, with multiple wars: Afghanistan, Iraq, etc, etc. The rule of law has been violated on a few occasions (Guantanamo, for example).

How long will this last for the Israelis? Impossible to say at the moment. They have lost all critical sense over the past year and seem incapable of taking the slightest step back.

In the name of the ongoing war, the State of Israel has forgotten to set up a commission of inquiry asking the question: “Why did the intelligence and security services fail?”

If Israel’s security services had worked, there would probably have been fewer than 100 deaths, and many of the horrors witnessed that day would not have taken place. Would reactions have been different? Probably, but Israelis are incapable of asking such a question and debating it.

What were the failings of the Israeli security services that led to October 7th?

They are manifold, and a great deal of thought has been and is being given to them outside Israel:

• failure to exploit intelligence that seemed implausible,
• overestimation of its importance and deterrent effect,
• implementation of a technical surveillance system with no relay or human verification,
• no security force on call to intervene within minutes of any incident
• demotivation of reservists for questionable political reasons.

How long will it take for the Israelis to appoint a commission of inquiry and converge on a conclusion already put forward by external players? “The security services and the army were unable to prevent an event that could have been minimized. No sophisticated weapons were used by the attackers. At most, a few weapons that can be found in any security service and a clear desire to turn such an event into a violent and cruel warlike event, without respecting the slightest law relating to wars”.

This does not change the horror and trauma of October 7th, but it could have led the Israelis to act differently.

Will the Israelis ever ask themselves whether 1,400 dead justifies more than 50,000 dead, and whether it also justifies destroying 70% of all the buildings in Gaza, not to mention the hospitals destroyed, the food shortages maintained and so much more?

And if the 1,400 dead had only been 100 dead if the security services had worked, would that have changed?

One day, yes, they’ll ask themselves that question, but it won’t be tomorrow.

For now, the war goes on, with no prospect other than a total victory, which remains hypothetical.

Naej DRANER

ND2024-1001, November 1, 2024

Naej DRANER is an analyst. He is an architect of a political-security solution who limits himself to the role of architect. His analyses are generally a preparation for the day after and a solution for the short, medium and long term. To build a house, you need an architect, but you also need a contractor. N.D. is not a contractor and can only have an influence if he joins forces with a contractor to design and implement a suitable political-security solution.