The Hamas war and the “War Cycle”

Does the war begun on October 7, 2023 confirm the “War Cycle”?

The theoretical amplification peak is in May 2024. This new war is triggered 8 months before the theoretical peak. The prediction before this war broke out was that there would be another war, most likely within +/- 1 year of the theoretical peak.

The October 2023 war confirms the “War Cycle” and reinforces the Arab-Israeli conflict as a remarkable case of the “War Cycle”.

What the forecasts didn’t show, however, was that it would be such a massacre, and probably the most terrible war of this conflict, on both the Israeli and Palestinian sides. The horror has only just begun.

We can see that the intensity of the wars during this phase of amplification is much greater for the Ukraine-Russia war and for the war that has just begun. Is this just a coincidence, or does this amplification phase have a particularly high level of intensity? In current studies, we haven’t yet identified any factors that could determine the intensity of this cyclical phenomenon. We do have a few clues that merit further study, but we can’t be sure.

What’s next for this war?

Our knowledge of the “War Cycle” does not allow us to know how future battles will unfold. They may last several weeks.

The consequences of this war will determine the Israeli-Palestinian future, even if it’s unlikely that anything will move in the coming months.

This war is also a “Return” of 50 years from the Yom Kippur War and 75 years from the first Arab-Israeli war.

In the Arab-Israeli conflict, several wars are a return (in the sense of Return Theory) of another war:

  • The 2006 Israeli-Lebanese war is a return of the 1982 war (24 years).
  • The current war is a return of the 1973 war (50 years)
  • The 1973 Yom Kippur War is itself a throwback to the first Arab-Israeli war of 1948, when Israel was created.

The historical origin of the “War Cycle” is the study of “Returns from the Past” between wars. At certain moments, wars are both an application of the “War Cycle” and of the Return Theory).

What do these returns mean? The Israeli-Palestinian problem is likely to reappear in terms little different from those of 1947.

October 10th 2023

Leave a Reply