Since there is a “Cycle of Wars”, is there a “Cycle of Peace”?
What is called the “War Cycle” has periods of amplification followed by periods of attenuation. These periods of attenuation could be considered the “Cycle of Peace”, except that it is difficult to demonstrate. This lack of credible demonstration for a “Cycle of Peace” would mean that this “Cycle of Peace” would never be recognized and admitted.
One could have given to the “War Cycle” the name “War and Peace Cycle”. But as easy as it is to have some statistical data from the dates of the outbreak of the wars, there is no possibility of having credible statistical data from the peace initiatives and their outcome.
Mitigation periods have been found to be more conducive to the cessation of wars and the completion of peace initiatives.
Thus the mitigation period 2018-2022 has seen for the time being:
- End of the Islamic State and its war
- peace initiative in Yemen with negotiations, ceasefire, etc.
- the War in Libya is experiencing positive developments in 2020: negotiations, cease-fire
- The war in Ukraine saw, for the first time since 2014, a ceasefire that resembles a ceasefire
- Historic agreements between Israel and the UAE and Bahrain are another manifestation
There are conflicts in which this trend toward peace or agreement is visible and known.
In the “context of the Arab-Israeli conflict“, this is visible and foreseen for this current period.
But it is not systematic as with wars.
Whether in the Arab-Israeli conflict or in Europe, there is practically at least one war in every period of amplification, but we cannot say that there is a peace initiative that results in every period of attenuation.
Moreover, the path that leads to war is usually fast, giving a date that makes sense. In the case of peace, it is more tortuous and the passage to action is not immediate and the resulting dates have little meaning from a statistical point of view (in addition there are too few data.).
Strictly speaking, there is no “Cycle of Peace” as there is a “Cycle of War”, but there are tendencies for wars to stop during periods of mitigation. There are also successful peace initiatives. Most of the peace agreements in the Arab-Israeli conflict are in the periods of mitigation, but these same peace agreements can be challenged in the periods of amplification that follow. If the negotiated agreement is not strong enough, it can be shattered as soon as tensions return.
From a “forecasting” point of view, it is integrated that periods of attenuation can give rise to peace agreements, but it is not used to make forecasts as is done with wars. Trends are predicted, but they are not transformed into a predictable fact.
October 24, 2020