The “War Cycle” is a periodic cycle with an amplifying effect on violence and wars.
This cycle was not found by a statistical study on the triggering of wars but by the study of past returns. For example, the Second World War can be considered as a 25-year return of the First World War. Another example is the Israeli-Arab war of Yom Kippur in 1973, which can be considered as a 25-year return from the first Israeli-Arab war of 1948.
Having spent a few years identifying past returns, including the outbreak of wars, I was surprised to see in 1999 that all these identified returns could be considered as belonging to the same periodic cycle. This cycle was originally called the “Return Cycle”, with reference to the past Returns which made it possible to highlight it. It seems more logical to call it “War Cycle” which is more relevant to those who do not understand the path that led to this discovery.
The period of 3085 days (a little less than 8 years and 6 months) was defined in the spring of 2001 after taking the dates of the outbreak of the main wars of the 20th century and replaying the deviations of these wars from the peak of probability with different values. (The list of wars selected for this exercise is in the French 2003 edition of the Unconscious Clock).
From 2004 have been defined graphs equivalent to those that you will find in the following pages.
To demonstrate that this cycle of wars does not depend on a single conflict or region, several graphs have been defined: Arab-Israeli, India-Pakistan, Europe, World, showing that the same phenomenon applies to several Regions and therefore to our earth.
One could have imagine other graphs but it will be part of a true evaluation that to bring others than the author did. As long as the author is the only one to present such evidence, he will be suspected of arranging things in his own way.
War is manifested in a military episode of some importance. The beginning of the war is the beginning of military operations.
In the case of a war like the Arab-Israeli conflict, each military round (eg the 6-day war) is considered a war.
It may be necessary to have a clearer definition of war. An isolated incident is not a war either. Point bombing not followed by a military incursion is not retained as a war.
It is important to understand the assumptions used to demonstrate the cycle of wars:
- The T0 of the “Cycle of Wars” adopted is the date of the outbreak of the First World War, as commonly expressed by historians
- The only event chosen initially to demonstrate the “War Cycle” is the date of the outbreak of a war. All other events are only for information.
- This unique event type is important so that others can confirm or deny it in the same context. The credibility of cyclical phenomena is low when one mixes different types of events of a different nature: this is not the case here.
- For those who know how to make date calculations with Excel, it is easy to recalculate all the dates from the T0 and the periodicity of 3085 days, but be careful with the limits of Excel: it does not work to calculate these dates in the 19th Century and before. It would require special software.
To start, look at these graphs