Context of the Arab-Israeli conflict in relation to the “Cycle of Wars”.
It is recommended to start by getting acquainted with the Arab-Israeli context.
This context remains true and the recent advances with the UAE and Bahrain are a fact confirming this context. This context is general, allowing us to understand some possible trends. As a reminder, most of the advances achieved by Israel during the periods of attenuation (as defined in the “War Cycle”) have been questioned in the periods of amplification that followed.
Even skeptics should consider it first and keep it in mind.
A detailed analysis of the conflict was made by applying what is known by the “War Cycle” and the “war outbreak modeling“.
This analysis is called: Will there be a lasting peace in Jerusalem?
To our knowledge, this analysis has not been used to date by any official or unofficial to attempt to propose a negotiation. It is applicable as much for a two-state solution as for a one-state solution. This analysis presupposes (like most of the existing proposals to date) a situation of two States mutually recognized to form a whole that resembles a single State while having the equivalent of two associated States within it. Some areas are common, such as air traffic control. The list of common areas has not been defined and should depend on negotiations. Whether it is a solution with 1 or 2 States, an internal balance will have to be found other than the absolute domination of one of the 2 parties making up this new common whole. Even if some evolutions are necessary in this analysis, it remains globally valid.
In accordance with the modeling of the outbreak of wars, all causes are identified and a weight is given to each cause. Then, it is the object of negotiation to take into account such and such a cause in order to bring all the causes well below the threshold for the outbreak of war.
Whatever negotiations are launched, this analysis should be the basis of reflection for any initiative.
Status of Jerusalem
It is limited to the status of Jerusalem based on the analysis available here.
Why focus on the status of Jerusalem? Because all attempted negotiations have failed in the end on this point and will fail if a solution is not found on this point. Rather than wasting nine months on comprehensive negotiations to fix the status of Jerusalem, we are doing the opposite: if there is no credible solution on Jerusalem, we might as well leave it at that. Moreover, it is the party that asks for the least investment on the spot: 10 people should be enough, not necessarily diplomats. Moreover, whether it is one or two states, the problem of a balance on Jerusalem should be similar.
The advantage of this experiment is that it could be carried out without the participation of States if there was an involvement of Jerusalem’s religious communities.
There are no experiments in progress. There have been just a few vague attempts to launch one that have not yielded anything so far and have not been carried out with the necessary and sufficient means to have a small chance to launch this point correctly.
Today the situation in Gaza is a rejection of any solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and in particular of a possible settlement concerning the West Bank.
Israel no longer has any territorial claim on Gaza. This begs the question “If Israel were to abandon the West Bank as a whole to the Palestinians, would it be peace? The example of Gaza makes it possible to affirm that NO. Exchanging territory for peace has not worked and will not work in Gaza and will not work in the West Bank. Something else is needed to make peace a reality in the West Bank.
Achieving a settlement in Gaza would allow progress on the rest.
In any case, Gaza will always remain a thorn in Israel’s side. If they annex most of the West Bank, they will make any solution to Gaza almost impossible..
Israel and Gaza are mutually rotting each other’s lives. Can they envisage building a future? Starting with a credible ceasefire maintenance system would be a good start. Based on the experience gained in Ukraine, even if not recognized, it should be possible to put something in place.
On the other hand, this negotiation of Gaza can only be done with the support of states. It would be necessary to start by seeing the states interested in such a prospect.
To date, there is no experiment on this subject, but if there are interested states (whoever they are) we can envisage something. By the end of the year 2020, a text on the ceasefire in Gaza will be proposed, for which volunteers will have to be found to enforce it. The publication or transmission of the text will be conditioned on the identification of at least one state motivated to attempt it.
October 12, 2020 updated and translated on October 22, 2020