Wars forecasts for the coming years
These forecasts were updated on October 12, 2020.
It is a period of attenuation of the “War Cycle”.
- Arab-Israeli conflict: traditionally this period of mitigation is the period of advancement of “official agreements” between Israel and its neighbors near or far.
2020 saw the announcement of standardization agreements between Israel and the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. Not every occurrence in the cycle leads to an agreement, but this is the most likely period.
- For the rest of the world, it is a relatively quiet period. This will not prevent either war from waking up or starting, but of limited intensity and duration.
It is a period of amplification with a peak expected in 2024.
On recurring conflicts, one can predict:
- EUROPE: There is usually a war at each amplification period. Given the rising tensions between Europe and Russia, there could be more than one. Since the 1990s, all these wars have been in the former European socialist perimeter (the USSR and Yugoslavia). The last 2 (Georgia and Ukraine) had a Russian component. The most likely is that it is in the same perimeter of the former USSR with a Russian component.
Since Europe has the particularity of an internal relational complexity, it is necessary to monitor both recurring or poorly resolved conflicts (e.g. Georgia in 2008) or sudden outbreaks of violence that escalate into war (Ukraine in 2014).
Unless Europeans become aware of these trends and take vigorous preventive action on existing friction points, the likelihood of at least one war in Europe during this period is considered certain.
- ARAB-ISRAELI CONFLICT: The trend is towards normalization, except for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and Gaza. The risk of a general explosion with Gaza, Hezbollah and the intifada in the West Bank is considered as a means. If there was a real attempt to settle Gaza, this peak of amplification could be limited. As for the ISRAELIAN-Iranian war component, its possible degeneration into direct or indirect war does not yet seem credible. It will be necessary to wait for the evolution of US policy following the presidential election and the internal political developments of Israel to reevaluate this part.
Since the creation of Israel, virtually every period of amplification has seen a war. The latest peaks have been limited to wars with Gaza.
- ASIA : The rise of nationalisms in both India and China should lead to a war (or even 2) whose outline is not yet clear.
- Post-COVID Context: if the 1929 crisis had a major influence on the outbreak of wars leading to the second world war, will the crisis of 2020 have an impact?
Probably not over the period 2022-2026. The crisis of 2020 is not considered, for the moment, to have as strong an impact as the crisis of 1929. If it had an impact, it could be in the amplification cycle following 2030-2034.
If you are skeptical, it is recommended that you go further on this page to see the forecasts already made at different periods that the facts have confirmed. In 2021 these forecasts will be refined. The total forecast will be no more than one A4 page.
Methodology and confirmed past examples
It is a combination of classical methods and the recognized contribution of the Clock of the Unconscious that allows us to make predictions. They can be of several types:
- simple tendency or unconscious motivation without being able to predict an event,
by identification of probable “Return from the past“
- indicate a probability of a “return of the past” for a past major event,
by identification of probable “Return from the past“
- make predictions of major wars
by combining classical methods of war analysis and prediction with the knowledge brought by the “War Cycle”.
Forecasts by identification of probable “Return from the past”.
1989: a return of the Second World War is foreseen
The first forecast of this type was made in 1989, at a time when the “Theory of Return” was in its infancy.
The basis for this prediction was the fact that a “Return of the outbreak of World War II” was foreseeable. Starting from the outbreak date of 1939, the method was to list all occurrences of the 25-year return and to see if the previous occurrences had been visible to confirm a possible return of the past around 1989 (1989 at + or – 2 years).
The conclusion was that between September 1989 and July 1990 there should be a “Return of the Past” from the beginning of the Second World War, that is to say:
- or a similar event (strong international war if not world war)
- or a contrary event, i.e. involving the Second World War or the consequences of the Second World War
- or both ( we could have during this period of time a similar event and an opposite event)
After having made such a prediction in August 1989, I smile and say to myself that one or the other of the possibilities was simply impossible in view of the international news in August 1989.
But in September 1989, I stopped smiling. I understood at the end of September that something was going to happen that would call into question the international and European order that had emerged from the Second World War. I didn’t go so far as to say that the separation of Europe and the Berlin Wall were going to be called into question, which seemed incredible in September 1989, but these two events confirmed this contrary (or negative) return of the Second World War.
As a result, I panicked a bit, wondering if we were going to have a strong international war. And the outbreak of the Kuwait war is an illustration of this. The strongest military alliance against one country, Iraq, since the Second World War. The conscious and unconscious assimilation of Saddam Hussein to Hitler. We did not have a new world war, but a war with a strong international military commitment.
This is a bit the disadvantage of “Returns of the past”. The planned event is not precise. It is a trend identified by predictable “Returns of the Past” which can be translated into an event whose detail remains unpredictable (the fall of the Berlin Wall and the outbreak of the Kuwait War were not foreseen).
Yet there has been a “Similar Return” (the Kuwait war and the war against Iraq) and a “Contrary Return” (the fall of the Berlin Wall and the disintegration of the European blocs).
2014: Return from the fall of the Berlin Wall
1989 + 25 years = 2014. According to the Theory of Return we should have a return from the fall of the Berlin Wall and the Second World War.
What form can this return take?
- reconstitution of European blocks
- reaffirmation of Russia as a return from the disintegration of the USSR
We have had both: new hostile European blocs are being reconstituted and Russia is reaffirming itself internationally as a contrary return to its disintegration and weakness..
Methodology for forecasting these “Returns of the past”.
Return Event Forecasting
We summarize recent history (the last 75 years) to 10 or 20 major historical events and look at what these events can cause as “Returns of the Past”. These historical events are not necessarily wars. The most significant collective events generally provoke one or more returns.
A “return of the past” of war or end of war is not necessarily a new war but can be a simple crisis.
These forecasts are only a probability of an event. The outline of the event is imprecise. This type of forecast is little used..
Trend forecasts based on identified “Returns”.
It is easier to describe “underlying trends” from the identified “Returns”. Example: the “Return of the Ottoman Empire” allows to caricature the behavior of Turkey. Whatever the war, the crisis, or the economic problem, Turkey gives the impression that it behaves as if it thought it was the Ottoman Empire. It is a little caricatured but corresponds well to reality. Consequently, the solution could be: what can we do so that Turkey stops pretending to be the Ottoman Empire? We don’t have the answer to this question that summarizes its current behavior.
Caution: Trend forecasting does not predict specific events, but behavior in relation to events.
Past examples of Forecasting by application of the “War Cycle”.
What are the results for the period 2005-2009?
Around the “War Cycle” it was found that the two remarkable cases were doing well:
- In Europe a small war: the war of Georgia, which was the occasion to demonstrate both an application of the “Theory of Return” and an application of the “War Cycle”.
- In the Arab-Israeli conflict, 2 wars identified during the period
The forecasts were not mature at the beginning of this period and while the 2005-2009 period remains interesting, the lack of clear formalization makes it difficult to distinguish between what was planned and what actually happened.
What are the results for the 2014-2017 period?
The predictions were more mature, both in the methodology and in the “available traces”.
The 2014-2017 period was foreseen, in application of the “War Cycle” (also called “Cycle of Return”), as a period at risk of wars and crises in different regions such as Europe, the Middle East, Asia, with a possible global trend.
In 2012, it was possible to forecast over the period 2014-2017::
- a new Arab-Israeli war,
- a new European war,
- a new episode of tension India-Pakistan,
- the Syrian civil war would turn into a regional war,
- other wars and probably international tensions corresponding to new conflicts
- the Gaza war in 2014
- The war in Ukraine started in April 2014
- India-Pakistan tensions were high in 2016
- The Syrian civil war has turned into a regional Iraqi-Syrian and international war with the involvement of the USA and Russia, as well as other regional powers.
- the Yemen war
- The War of the Islamic State
- the PKK-Turkey war has woken up
- The year 2015 was a peak of terrorist violence in several countries including France with 2 major attacks: Charlie Hebdo and the Bataclan.
This has not been explicitly provided for but is consistent with the Clock of the Unconscious and the “Theory of Return”:
- The return of the fall of the Berlin Wall and the end of the blocks of Europe, which has been reforming blocks and questioning history for the past 25 years
Ce qui n’a pas été prévu:
- The irruption of the Islamic State
The “War Cycle” does not explain all wars. For example, the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan at the end of September 2020 is taking place in a period of attenuation, at a time when we can hope to have fewer wars. It is more likely to be a limited round than an all-out war as was the case between 1988-1994, but the violence of the outbreak of this episode shows that the conflict has hardened. This conflict does not give rise to a complementary study for the moment. The priority is to upgrade what has been started and already developed, not to embark on a new adventure without means.
October 12, 2020 (French to English translation on October 22, 2020)