The Clock of the Unconscious

Program for the year 2022 of the activities of the Clock of the Unconscious

In October 2021, the observation is particularly severe on the understanding of the subject: There is not a single comment or feedback from a reader that allows to affirm that someone has understood anything, whether it is on a text or a book available, or on the site itself.

What should we conclude from this observation?

    • Does the author express himself badly? Probably, since it is a question of explaining new phenomena with everyday words. Still it would be necessary to understand what is not understood. The only way would be for a reader to agree to express what he or she has understood and to agree to dialogue to help the author better express what he  wants to say and that obviously nobody has understood.
      –> It would be necessary to rewrite everything differently with the help of readers
    • The readers did not read or understand? Presumably those who arrived on this site were content to read a few lines diagonally and immediately made an unfavorable and probably caricatural judgment, without understanding anything
      –> It would be necessary to have a feedback of those who arrived until here and to understand what they did not understand
    • Lack of communication and networks? It is certain that the communication is messed up and that until now these studies are not supported by any pre-existing network and that there is no specific network to carry it. Making a website, even if it is theoretically seen by everyone, does not bring any guarantee that those who might be interested will take notice of it. Internet is a commercial brochure and if the first reflex is negative, what should be an entry point becomes a definitive exit point.

What program for 2022 to try to make people understand what the Clock of the Unconscious is?

    • Making an assessment of the period 2012-2022: In 2012 the second edition of the Clock of the Unconscious was written. This book was written to anticipate the predicted period of heightened tension and war from 2014 to 2017 as well as the mitigation period from 2018 to 2022. We can take stock of what was predicted and what actually happened from 2014 to 2017 to begin with and then add to it. It is an objective and disturbing assessment for everyone: both the author and his opponents. This was a very fruitful period. It will only make sense if people go back to the 2012 edition, of which there are still about a hundred copies, and agree to enter into this process of assessment. Will there be an audience? Not sure, but it must be done, whatever the positive or negative reactions
    • Proposing presentations: what brings an idea to life is the controversy that is generated or the contradictory debate that is born. At this stage, it is probably not a thick and incomprehensible book that will interest potential readers, but one or more clear and self-supporting presentations
    • Rewrite all the studies: This should be done in the form of “study sheets” or “condensed texts” and not in the form of a book that may never be read or published. It is then hoped that one or the other will provoke sufficient interest to lead to real presentations.
    • Funding student theses: Some parts could be integrated into student theses. It is a question of proposing a credible deal to students in the hope that they will be endorsed by the thesis leaders. It is not a question of covering a complete thesis but a subset for a sum between 1.000 and 5.000 €.
    • Having critical reviewers: When such studies appear to be out of order, one can always look for volunteer or funded reviewers, in order to better understand what is not understood and rephrase it in an understandable form
    • … and other actions: an academic will not fail to say that an article must be done and submitted to such and such a journal. Yes, but as long as there is no comprehensible and debatable form, the article will be rejected in advance. These are circles that co-opt each other and are more concerned with references to what already exists than to what does not yet exist. And there are many other actions, but the first phase must at least result in being able to see that the ideas and studies have at least been understood, even if they are rejected. Today, they are rejected without even being understood

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The following is only a quick synthesis of the whole subject which generally causes a rejection without reading and understanding. I suppose that the readers classify what follows in the part “wacky”, “esotericism”, “astrology” …. which does not correspond to anything of what I try to explain.  It is possible that by asserting unknown truths too loudly, I provoke a rejection and a misunderstanding. How do I know if no one speaks up in return? Welcome to those who are willing to discuss and express themselves.

Is there a cyclical phenomenon that influences our collective behavior and in particular wars?

This is the question that this site tries to answer by presenting troubling elements, gathered over the years (from 1988 to today).

There is no official certainty on this subject. It is a reflection outside of most currents of thought and outside of the scientific research conducted until now. So much so that those who will read it will perhaps oscillate between incredulity and ????.

The purpose of this site is to present the existing elements. It is certain that they will appear insufficient as definitive proof. They are only intuitions which have already given rise to some studies and for which there is a long list of complementary studies to be carried out. We could keep dozens of researchers busy for years and years. This would allow us to have something more solid and credible.

We are only at the stage of presenting the initial ideas and the troubling elements that allow us to think that we have stumbled upon a fundamental phenomenon.

There is no official certainty on this subject. It is a reflection outside of most currents of thought and outside of the scientific research conducted until now. So much so that those who will read it will perhaps oscillate between incredulity and ????.

The purpose of this site is to present the existing elements. It is certain that they will appear insufficient as definitive proof. They are only intuitions which have already given rise to some studies and for which there is a long list of complementary studies to be carried out. We could keep dozens of researchers busy for years and years. This would allow us to have something more solid and credible.

We are only at the stage of presenting the initial ideas and the troubling elements that allow us to think that we have stumbled upon a fundamental phenomenon.

It is necessary to open a debate on the subject, to bring elements for or against to make mature this subject which influences us without most of us being conscious of it.  When the debate will be well advanced and each element will have been weighed, contested, validated, refused, then we will be able to conclude to the reality or not of this cyclic phenomenon.

How to summarize in a few lines this cyclic phenomenon?

A cyclic phenomenon has been identified: the cycle is about 8 and a half years or a multiple and most often 3 times, ie a little over 25 years or a multiple of 25 years.

This periodic phenomenon can be expressed in different ways

    • It can bring back the past but in a distorted and most often unconscious form. This phenomenon is called “Return from the past“.
    • It can exacerbate tensions and favor wars or escalations. This is studied through the “War Cycle” which does not determine all wars but can favor war or resolution depending on whether it is in a phase of amplification or in a phase of attenuation
    • It can, in exceptional cases, give the impression of a certain parallelism of history. This subject is just mentioned here but not demonstrated at this stage

What can be the interest of such a cyclic phenomenon?

The first is to notice that collective events, such as crises or wars, which seem to be unpredictable, follow a logic that can only be understood by becoming aware of this cyclical phenomenon. It is fascinating to see this. It is disturbing to admit it. It can give some people the impression of a formidable regression of thought which returns to a world where we imagined, in the Middle Ages, a great hidden clockwork which guided our destiny. It is a bit like that without being so simplistic. This phenomenon has an influence but is not deterministic.

This has consequences for fundamental research on the mechanisms of thought and unconscious collective influence, but it also allows for various applied research.

In this reflection, there are real weak points that can weaken this vision of cyclical phenomena, but most often it is not these weak points that are put forward, but a simple caricature. Of course, these weak points will also be presented. It is part of an objective reflection to be able to show what confirms this cyclical phenomenon as well as to be able to show the elements that can call this cyclical phenomenon into question.

We are not in a binary world of simplistic demonstrations, but in a complex world with many partial demonstrations of a phenomenon that we are just beginning to understand.

Those who are interested will find the essentials, whether to understand what has been done or what should be done to give it more credibility and to launch the necessary complementary studies.  There are both ideas and concepts that have been validated by further study.

The scope of all these studies can be summarized in 2 parts::

    • The Clock of the Unconscious which revolves around a cyclical phenomenon giving rise to several theories and applications
    • Related complementary studies are mostly linked to the understanding of wars, their outbreak and their possible resolution. Some studies are indirectly related to the clock of the unconscious, but others have no direct or indirect connection.

The Clock of the Unconscious

One could summarize the Clock of the Unconscious as the unlikely marriage of the unconscious of Freud and Jung with the Eternal Return of Nietzsche. This obsession of a reliving of the past resulting in an eternal Return would be only the perception of the cycle highlighted by the Clock of the Unconscious. But this reliving of the past can be as much conscious as unconscious. The reference to the unconscious and some basic mechanisms of the Freudian unconscious (resurgence, repression, …) can help to understand the effects of these returns, even if it is only the concept of unconscious that is taken up.

Without going into great intellectual debates, we could speak more simply about a “periodic phenomenon” which seems to have a great influence on the behavior of countries and their leaders. This periodic phenomenon manifests itself in different forms: Returns of the past, War Cycle and other forms currently in study

These views only partially capture a whole that still escapes us. The possibilities are fascinating but still fragile as long as we do not have clear and indisputable demonstrations. But we must dare to read them to have a small idea of the evolutions to come in these fields.

Related studies

The concepts discovered in the Clock of the Unconscious have destabilized war understanding. How can a periodic phenomenon promote wars? Can the data from the “War Cycle” be used to anticipate future wars?

  • The modeling of the triggering of wars is an element of response to link a more classical conception of wars and the “War Cycle”. This modeling is new to those interested in war studies. It is therefore a study in its own right
  • classic forecasts have been improved by using what is known about the “War Cycle”. It is impressive to be able to know several years in advance the probable periods of future wars. It is not very accurate but it is a considerable progress.

Other questions more or less related to the other studies were conducted:

  • How can we achieve a ceasefire that holds? This is a reflection that has been carried out over the last few years in relation to Ukraine. It cannot be achieved without trying to enforce something on the ground, which would require means of intervention that we do not have. It is a reality that there does not seem to be any knowledge to achieve a ceasefire. Would it be useful? It is not clear that the current actors in conflict resolution are open to any certainties other than their own. If such knowledge existed, it is not certain that it could be applied and achieved: it would be disturbing. (this reflection has been abandoned for the moment: a direct link with the actors concerned by the maintenance of the cease-fire would be necessary to hope to make it a reality)
  • Can we use some of the concepts such as modeling the onset of wars to provide an analysis that can be used in a negotiation?
    There was an essay called “Will Jerusalem have a lasting peace – 2020 ND – 2020-02-13” It has not been used to date in any way. It is almost another study. While the Clock of the Unconscious sheds new light on wars, understanding it does not stop a war and make peace. Further studies are needed to try to resolve conflicts.

What is at stake in these studies?

They are important even if they arouse incredulity.

We can imagine, based on current knowledge, that most of the major wars of the 20th and 21st centuries have a cause that is unconscious today and that is this cyclical phenomenon. We do not yet know the real origin of this phenomenon. Probably it is not as regular as a beautiful mathematical sinusoid, but we will not be able to explain the two world wars of the 20th century without recognizing and accepting this cause which is today invisible and unconscious. For some scientists, or recognized eminent persons, to identify such invisible causes is sacrilegious and without any justification. But if other complementary studies were to confirm this, it would shed a new light on all those wars which we thought were defending a just cause but for which one of the important causes had not been identified until now. All this has not yet been demonstrated in an indisputable way and can only be demonstrated if other researchers take up these studies. At best, it would take 10 years to arrive at such a shared conclusion, if dozens of researchers were to add a few missing bricks to what has been started.

What uses have been made?

The application areas that have been experimented with are:

  • medium-term war forecasting
  • the research of unlikely crises
  • the declension of the initial concepts into probable applications (e.g.: analysis in relative or parallel history)

The fields that have been explored so far are more related to sociology or collective behavior than to psychology and individual behavior.

updated on October 24, 2021