Nagorno-Karabakh: a ceasefire negotiated or imposed after a military victory?


Sooner or later the fighting will stop in Nagorno-Karabakh. It will be either a negotiated ceasefire opening negotiations towards the hope of a settlement or a military victory for Azerbaijan, which is making great strides forward.

Everything has been said for a long time about this conflict in Nagorno Karabakh. For example, about ten years ago Fazil Zeynalov published a book entitled “THE NAGORNO-KARABAKH CONFLICT : TOWARDS A JUST PEACE OR INEVITABLE WAR” (L’Harmattan). Although the Minsk Group, in charge of this negoiation within OSCE, is chaired by the United States, Russia and France, these 3 countries have shown their powerlessness on this subject. Since September 27, there has not been a ceasefire that is beginning to hold. Because Azerbaijan is his country, where he is an academic, the author skews a solution a bit, but all the arguments of each side are presented: the book remains objective to understand this conflict.

The facts prove the author right. A just peace was needed to avoid an avoidable war. Now that the war is here, time is running out. In a few weeks, there will be a military victory if there is no ceasefire that holds.

Although the Minsk Group is chaired by the United States, Russia and France, these 3 countries have shown their powerlessness on this subject. Since September 27, there has not been a ceasefire that is beginning to hold..

Do they know and can they obtain a ceasefire?

Could they get one if they were determined and committed to forceps negotiations? Clearly they are evil and no one will dare to launch a negotiation in parallel and as a substitute for that of these 3 countries.

What’s up?

To begin with, it would be necessary to find one or two leaders each determined to intervene with one of the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan and to define with them the successive steps to be taken in order to have any hope of success.

What next? It will be necessary to see according to the urgency they want to put in it.

Naej DRANER

November 8, 2020

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