Ukraine at the end of December: Insidious deterioration of the ceasefire


3 statistical elements indicate a progressive deterioration:

  • The “number of days without any violations per month”:
    8 in August
    3 in September
    3 in October
    0 in November
    0 in December (until December 29)

  • Weekly totals of violations and explosions
  • Monthly totals of violations and explosions

The first 3 months after the July 27th ceasefire were about the same in terms of violations and explosions.

Between October and November, there were 1.7 times as many violations.
Between November and December, there were almost 3 times as many violations. This month-to-month acceleration is not a good sign. Almost exponential increase.

(violations and explosions are from SMM reports)

Why?

  • JCCC’s membership is renewed every 3 months. Has there been a loss of information and behaviour? We don’t know: JCCC never communicate or report objectively and publicly.
  • The system supposed to control the ceasefire is still not adequate. The main characteristic of the fighting forces is that they are partially destructured and only partially react to hierarchies, whereas the only measures taken now are hierarchical: there seems to be only one operational CP for all sectors, only one very high-level coordination, nothing adapted to the local situation and traditional hot spots. The organization is fixed on a hierarchical basis, whereas there are precisely hierarchical management breaks that may explain the inability of the combatants to comply with global hierarchical orders.
  • The notion of real time does not exist between stakeholders. Information breaks can be several hours or days long, as if everything could wait. When you’re monitoring a fire, every minute counts. It should be the same for a cease-fire monitoring system. It is not. The notion of time seems foreign to them. They end up transmitting hierarchical orders of moderation, but they can wait 24 or 48 hours before they are analyzed and then transmitted to the authorities.

Conclusion:

This is still better than the situation before July 27, 2020, but it is still not a complete ceasefire. The deterioration is insidious because it is slow and invisible to those who do not know the issue. So slow that it will not move any media or leaders who will not be informed and will not inform.

Il serait intéressant de faire parler quelques membres JCCC et SMM pour confirmer comment ils travaillent. Apparemment ils n’ont pas compris ce que serait un système adapté à la situation locale.

Updated on December 29, 2020

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