Ukrainian Conflict


Initial interest in Ukraine

Ukraine is concerned from 2014 by 2 elements related to the Clock of the Unconscious:

  • Returns from the past
    It is a return to the past of the end of the blocks in Europe at the beginning of the 1990s and the disintegration of the USSR. The return of 2014 is the reaffirmation of Russia (in relation to the disintegration of the USSR) and the attempt to create new republics (DPR and LPR) in relation to the disappearance of the socialist republics of the USSR.
  • The “War Cycle“
    It was likely that there was a European war, and the Ukrainian war is an illustration of this. In a few weeks in 2014, several wars have broken out which illustrate the “War Cycle“. To understand the European context of the “War Cycle”, go to the European context

For these reasons, it was necessary to understand why this Ukraine-Russian war started and if it brings some new elements for the understanding of the “War Cycle“. Hence the need to be interested in the war in Ukraine and to understand its causes.

Why the war broke out?

To begin to understand, it was necessary to try to understand the history of Ukraine.

Some peculiarities of Ukraine are:

  • Border instability over time. Borders have always evolved significantly. When one asks why the Crimea was attached to Ukraine during the Soviet era, it is difficult to have a single convincing answer. In other words, the latest developments that have profoundly changed the Ukrainian borders are not exceptional in the history of Ukraine.
    Historians should be asked to draw all the successive borders of Ukraine in the history of Ukraine and transform all these successive borders into a slide show. The result would be interesting
  • Political instability. Since its independence in 1991, Ukraine has experienced 2 “revolutions”. The first is the Orange Revolution (2004-2005), and the second is the change of power of 2013-2014. In between, you had the whole traditional political spectrum including pro-Russian powers. Will there ever be a new pro-Russian power? Probably YES, even if they don’t have the wind in their sails at the moment.
  • Ukraine is a sounding board for Europe-Russia relations. Over the centuries, this has always been the case. The difficult relations between Russia and Europe are reflected in Ukraine, which has always had a double attraction to Europe and Russia. Ukraine is experiencing within itself the state of Europe-Russia relations.
  • Russia is ambivalent about Europe. If Peter the Great wished to integrate Russia into Europe, Putin has a complex relationship with Europe and seems to prefer a rebalancing towards Asia. We are not in a phase where Russia is trying to seduce Europe but rather in a phase of authoritarianism from Russia to Europe. The current phase between Russia and Europe is conflictual, in various forms.
  • Then we must take into account the particular context of 2013. By wanting to hook Ukraine to Russia through a cooperation treaty, Russia has provoked the opposite and provoked a rejection until a change of power. This prospect has frightened the people close to Russia. Russia used these events to get its hands on the Crimea and let those who wanted to attach the Donbass to Russia do so, while officially defending itself and providing massive military and economic aid, making any solution within Ukraine difficult.

Why did the war in Europe take place in Ukraine? Probably because there was a high level of tension in late 2013 and early 2014. The cyclical phenomenon identified by the “War Cycle” went through this, adding what it takes to start the war. However, it is difficult to quantify all these elements of the causes of the war in relation to each other.

Intervention of Russia

It is unquestionable in the Crimea: Russia even boasts about it and has never stopped talking about its green men, presented as heroes.

In Donbass, this intervention is more complex but just as real. All the armament there comes from Russia and its allies. This is indisputable. The level of direct and indirect military support is so high that the leaders of the pseudo-republics have a disproportionate level of demands.

Negotiations Minsk 1 and Minsk 2

In September 2014 the Minsk Accords1 was negotiated between Ukraine and Russia, with the help of the OSCE and Belarus.

At the beginning of 2015, a new negotiation took place by introducing France and Germany. It lead to the Minsk2 agreements

Ceasefire study

The ceasefires decreed since 2014 have made it possible to lower the level of fighting a little, but without ever leading to a real ceasefire respected on the ground.

In July 2017 was written ND201707003. This text described why the ceasefire was not holding and what should be done. It seems to me certain that this text reached the SMM, the SMM observers investigated one point (the internal retransmission to each camp of the ceasefire order). Their investigation confirmed what ND201707003 explained, but I don’t know whether it was sent through official channels or simply through the relations of one of the diplomats who would have been aware of it.

The first credible ceasefire was established on 27 July 2020 by the TCG agreements of 22 July 2020.

This ceasefire is compatible with 75% of what was requested in the texts ND201707003 and ND202004001 to achieve a ceasefire.

It lacks 2 points :

  • the removal of ambiguities in the Minsk2 agreements
  • the SMCCC (System Monitoring & Control Center) which is an integrated SMM and JCCC organization, for the supervision and control part of the cease-fire

These 2 points are important to prepare the next step and the future. If the equivalent of these 2 points does not emerge, the ceasefire will simply freeze the current conflict, without resolving anything.

Provisional Conclusion

As of June 6, 2021, the cease-fire remains fictitious. The situation has deteriorated significantly since the end of 2020. The whole Minsk process has broken down.

It is necessary to reestablish a cease-fire and build a shared vision of the future of Donbass

Try this ND202106001-2 Reinforce the ceasefire of July 27, 2020 – EN-US

Naej DRANER

Updated on June 6, 2021

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