We must not deny it. The “War Cycle” is a subject where events regularly contradict the principle of the cyclicity of wars. We must take them into account and try to understand.
As a reminder, the War against Iraq in 2003 began at the most unlikely time in the “War Cycle”. This war thus contradicted the “War Cycle”. Some people wanted to use it to demonstrate that this theory is smoky and false. The 2003 war in Iraq led to astonishing demonstrations that reinforce the “War Cycle” by demonstrating a phenomenon of amplification of violence that could be measured by thousands of measurements: Materialization of the “War Cycle” by thousands of measures
Another element that is not yet explained in detail on this site is the “parallelism of History between the Second World War and the post-September 11, 2001”. The war in Iraq occurs (in relative time) at the moment when the allies liberate Europe and the World. This demonstration of the parallelism of History does not really concern the “War Cycle”, but it is a fundamental element that reinforces the Clock of the Unconscious in its basic theory, which is the ” Return Theory”, of which the “War Cycle” is only a derivative application.
For a war that should ridicule its author and his theories, Iraq has become a fundamental war to understand and confirm the Clock of the Unconscious.
We must therefore be careful when we find one or two wars that do not confirm the “War Cycle”, hastily believing that we will find a definitive argument against the Theory.
In 2020, 2 wars thus contradict the “War Cycle”:
- The war in Nagorno-Karabakh started on September 27, 2020
- The war in Ethiopia between the Ethiopian Federal Army and Tigray began in early November.
Moreover, what is interesting is that these 2 wars started in a relatively short period of time (1 month and a half) which can allow us to imagine that these wars would have been favored (conflicts amplified to the point of degenerating into war) by a single unidentified cause.
In 2014, we had a 3-month period during which we were triggered:
- the Donbass war (beginning of April)
- the war against the Islamic State (June)
- an Israel-Gaza war (beginning of July)
exactly as if the same phenomenon at the origin of the “War Cycle” had favored the emergence of 3 wars.
Some will point out that this period from April to July 2014 is a little more than a year and a half away from the theoretical amplification peak of the “War Cycle” which is in December 2015.
YES, it is certain that the phenomenon at the origin of the “War Cycle” is not a perfect sinusoid. It is very likely that it is a cycle that has half-periods of 6 years and others of 10 years rather than exactly 3085 days (about 8 and a half years).
Maybe the real amplification peak was in the second quarter of 2014 rather than the end of 2015?
In the last quarter of 2020, we are close to the peak of the attenuation of wars and we can’t, by a faulty reasoning, show that these 2 new wars help to demonstrate the “War Cycle”.
On the other hand, it is not impossible that the phenomenon at the origin of the “War Cycle” may from time to time have unknown secondary peaks. This hypothesis is gratuitous since we do not know what the phenomenon at the origin of the “War Cycle” is. There is, for the moment, no serious study by astronomers and radio-astronomers, although this is certainly the way to look for it.
A study was done a few years ago to see if the cycle of solar activity would explain the “War Cycle” or have an influence on wars. The conclusion was that the cycle of solar activity is not related to the “War Cycle” but that periods of high solar activity can promote or amplify certain wars.
In the last quarter of 2020, solar activity is minimal. The lowest activity occurred in July 2020. However, there were some very strong solar flares in November 2020.
Nagorno-Karabakh: a “Return from the past” from the end of the 1988-1994 war?
For the war in Nagorno-Karabakh, one could consider the new war to be a “Return” from the end of the 1988-1994 war, which ended on 16 May 1994. According to the “Return Theory”, the probable date of return was September 2019, which corresponds to the 25-year cycle. Given the known uncertainty of + or – 2 years, the war of 2020 can be considered as a “negative Return” (since it is against the original event) .
Moreover, one could attempt to construct a negative parallelism of history between the period from 1989 to 1995, which corresponds to the period from the fall of the Berlin Wall to the final disintegration of the USSR, and the few years that followed. What is interesting is that all the events identified for the moment are in negative logic. This would be the only known case at the moment. This parallel part of the history is not yet presented on this site. It is a fascinating part and not as fragile and far-fetched as it seems at first glance. Making it available to the public still requires some checking
What to conclude?
Nothing for the moment. It is necessary to keep in mind this period and these 2 wars that contradict the “War Cycle”. When an explanation will be found for the “War Cycle”, it is possible that this anomaly can be explained or that it will become a recognized contradictory exception. For the hypothesis of a “Return”, one would have to dig deeper into the subject before being able to conclude.
December 8, 2020